WTA TokyoWTA 500Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Osaka vs Pohankova: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 15h 56mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Naomi Osaka78%
Mia Pohankova22%
Elo: N. Osaka 80% · M. Pohankova 20%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 N. Osaka56%
2:1 N. Osaka22%
2:1 M. Pohankova11%
2:0 M. Pohankova12%
First set
Naomi Osaka72%
Mia Pohankova29%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 53%market (no margin): 49%
The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 21.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 71% | 29% | 72% |
| 18.5 | 62% | 38% | 64% |
| 19.5 | 54% | 46% | 56% |
| 20.5 | 47% | 53% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 43% | 57% | 44% |
| 22.5 | 37% | 63% | 38% |
| 23.5 | 33% | 67% | 34% |
Sample: 1,557 matches
Games handicap
N. Osaka −4.554%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes21%
tour average 22%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| N. Osaka | Tour | M. Pohankova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 56% | 58% |
| Return points won | 43% | 44% | 44% |
| Service games held | 77% | 63% | 69% |
| Breaks of serve | 33% | 37% | 35% |
| Aces per service game | 0.53 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.24 | 0.27 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 14% | 11% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 9/13 | 4/6 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 86% | |
| Matches in the sample | 41 | 24 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Naomi Osaka
- 27/10/26WJasmine Paolini#35WTA Tokyo · R326:3 7:6
- 06/10/26LKarolína Muchová#7WTA Beijing · R165:7 6:1 6:7
- 04/10/26WSara Bejlek#32WTA Beijing · R327:6 6:4
- 02/10/26WMaria Timofeeva#72WTA Beijing · R646:3 3:6 6:3
- 07/09/26LElena Rybakina#1WTA US Open · R161:6 4:6
- 05/09/26WElise Mertens#14WTA US Open · R326:3 3:6 7:5
- 03/09/26WKateřina Siniaková#49WTA US Open · R646:2 5:7 6:1
- 01/09/26WAnastasia Zakharova#105WTA US Open · R1287:6 7:6
- 11/08/26LElena Rybakina#1WTA Toronto · QF6:4 6:7 4:6
- 09/08/26WLeylah Fernandez#23WTA Toronto · R166:4 6:4
Mia Pohankova
- 27/10/26WTereza Valentova#87WTA Tokyo · R326:1 6:4
- 15/10/26LMaria Sakkari#30WTA Wuhan · R161:6 4:6
- 13/10/26WXiyu Wang#82WTA Wuhan · R327:6 6:7 6:1
- 12/10/26WAnna Bondar#76WTA Wuhan · R646:1 6:3
- 26/09/26LMaria Timofeeva#72WTA 125 Porto · SF2:6 7:6 3:6
- 25/09/26WKatie Swan#192WTA 125 Porto · QF3:6 7:5 6:1
- 24/09/26WVeronika Podrez#136WTA 125 Porto · R166:3 6:4
- 22/09/26WFrancisca Jorge#236WTA 125 Porto · R326:2 6:1
- 19/09/26LGabriela Knutson#164WTA 125 Caldas da Rainha · SF5:7 7:5 3:6
- 18/09/26WKylie Collins#320WTA 125 Caldas da Rainha · QF7:6 6:4
Elo over the last year
Naomi OsakaMia Pohankova
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| N. Osaka | M. Pohankova | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 15–671% | 12–571% |
| Clay | 7–370% | 0–20% |
| Grass | 8–280% | 2–340% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Naomi Osaka
- 27/10/26WJasmine Paolini#35WTA Tokyo · R326:3 7:6
Mia Pohankova
- 27/10/26WTereza Valentova#87WTA Tokyo · R326:1 6:4