WTA NingboWTA 500Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Paolini vs Kalinina 2:0: result and our tips

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Jasmine PaoliniWTA #35Elo 1958hard 1933
2:0final6:2 7:5
Anhelina KalininaWTA #51Elo 1808hard 1743

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won68%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Paolini 14 of 20, Kalinina 16 of 20 (tour average 64%)

Other tips

  • Tie-break in Match: NoWon75%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Kalinina: 13 matches in a row without a tie-break

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost47%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Paolini 10 of 20, Kalinina 13 of 20 (tour average 44%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jasmine Paolini68%
Anhelina Kalinina32%

Elo: J. Paolini 75% · A. Kalinina 25%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Paolini45%
2:1 J. Paolini21%
2:1 A. Kalinina15%
2:0 A. Kalinina19%

First set

Jasmine Paolini64%
Anhelina Kalinina36%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.577%23%72%
18.568%32%64%
19.560%40%56%
20.553%47%49%
21.547%53%44%
22.541%59%38%
23.537%63%34%

Sample: 2,084 matches

Games handicap

Jasmine Paolini −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 20.5out · 20 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Jasmine PaoliniAnhelina Kalinina
3Aces0
7Double faults8
68%First serves in46%
60%First-serve points won63%
36%Second-serve points won22%
7/13Break points converted4/7
6/10Service games held3/10
52%Service points won41%
59%Return points won48%
77Total points won61

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. PaoliniTourA. Kalinina
Service points won55%56%57%
Return points won43%44%47%
Service games held64%63%65%
Breaks of serve35%37%43%
Aces per service game0.130.13
Double faults per game0.220.32
Sets with a tie-break9%6%
Tie-breaks won2/88/9
Wins in straight sets50%69%
Matches in the sample3667

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jasmine Paolini

Anhelina Kalinina

Elo over the last year

Jasmine PaoliniAnhelina Kalinina

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. PaoliniA. Kalinina
Hard court11–1248%11–1052%
Clay3–443%32–978%
Grass4–267%2–340%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Jasmine Paolini

First match in this tournament.

Anhelina Kalinina

See also