Challenger MaiaChallenger 125Semifinalclaybest of three sets

Passaro vs Dodig 2:1: result and our tips

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Francesco PassaroATP #146Elo 1833clay 1821
2:1final5:7 6:1 6:4
Matej DodigATP #138Elo 1913clay 1916

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

How our tips did

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Francesco Passaro41%
Matej Dodig59%

Elo: F. Passaro 37% · M. Dodig 63%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Passaro23%
2:1 F. Passaro17%
2:1 M. Dodig22%
2:0 M. Dodig38%

First set

Francesco Passaro43%
Matej Dodig57%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 50%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.571%29%59%
20.563%38%52%
21.556%44%47%
22.550%50%40%
23.544%56%36%
24.540%60%34%
25.538%63%30%

Sample: 4,878 matches

Games handicap

Matej Dodig −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes38%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 29 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Francesco PassaroMatej Dodig
7Aces2
0Double faults4
62%First serves in67%
74%First-serve points won70%
70%Second-serve points won44%
3/9Break points converted1/6
14/15Service games held11/14
72%Service points won61%
39%Return points won28%
103Total points won87

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. PassaroTourM. Dodig
Service points won65%62%65%
Return points won37%38%38%
Service games held81%76%82%
Breaks of serve21%24%23%
Aces per service game0.480.56
Double faults per game0.230.17
Sets with a tie-break19%17%
Tie-breaks won19/2517/29
Wins in straight sets66%54%
Matches in the sample5471

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Francesco Passaro

Matej Dodig

Elo over the last year

Francesco PassaroMatej Dodig

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. PassaroM. Dodig
Hard court13–862%14–1156%
Clay19–1458%33–1175%
Grass0–01–150%

Head to head

F. Passaro 1–1 M. Dodig

  • 08/10/25Winner: Matej Dodig3:6 4:6
  • 20/07/25Winner: Francesco Passaro4:6 6:1 6:2

Road through the tournament

Francesco Passaro

Matej Dodig

See also