Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Round of 32claybest of three sets

Passaro vs Elias 2:0: result and our tips

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Francesco PassaroATP #146Elo 1865clay 1856
2:0final6:2 6:2
Gastao EliasElo 1545clay 1547

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Francesco Passaro90%
Gastao Elias10%

Elo: F. Passaro 86% · G. Elias 14%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Passaro72%
2:1 F. Passaro17%
2:1 G. Elias6%
2:0 G. Elias5%

First set

Francesco Passaro83%
Gastao Elias17%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes23%
no77%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 18.5 · 55%market (no margin): 52%

The 18.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 20.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.575%25%84%
17.565%36%76%
18.555%45%68%
19.546%54%59%
20.539%61%52%
21.533%67%47%
22.528%72%40%

Sample: 1,437 matches

Games handicap

Francesco Passaro −6.544%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes22%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 18.5out · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Francesco PassaroGastao Elias
—Aces—
—Double faults—
88%First serves in48%
80%First-serve points won52%
17%Second-serve points won44%
4/8Break points converted0/4
8/8Service games held4/8
73%Service points won48%
52%Return points won28%
64Total points won39

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. PassaroTourG. Elias
Service points won66%62%59%
Return points won37%38%33%
Service games held81%76%70%
Breaks of serve22%24%16%
Aces per service game0.470.32
Double faults per game0.220.31
Sets with a tie-break19%0%
Tie-breaks won19/250/0
Wins in straight sets62%—
Matches in the sample565

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Francesco Passaro

Gastao Elias

Elo over the last year

Francesco PassaroGastao Elias

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. PassaroG. Elias
Hard court13–862%0–20%
Clay21–1460%0–30%

Head to head

They have not met yet.