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WTA NingboWTA 500Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying

Rybakina vs Kawa 2:1: result and our tips

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Elena RybakinaWTA #1Elo 2227hard 2242
2:1final6:1 3:6 6:1
Katarzyna KawaWTA #106Elo 1689hard 1595

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 16.5Won62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 16.5 games in recent matches: Rybakina 19 of 20, Kawa 19 of 20 (tour average 81%); Rybakina: 18 matches in a row over 16.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 19.5Won33%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Rybakina 14 of 20, Kawa 16 of 20 (tour average 55%); Kawa: 5 matches in a row over 19.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Elena Rybakina94%
Katarzyna Kawa6%

Elo: E. Rybakina 98% · K. Kawa 2%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 E. Rybakina78%
2:1 E. Rybakina15%
2:1 K. Kawa3%
2:0 K. Kawa4%

First set

Elena Rybakina86%
Katarzyna Kawa14%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes18%
no82%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 17.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 17.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 19.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
14.585%15%95%
15.574%26%89%
16.564%36%82%
17.553%47%72%
18.542%58%63%
19.535%65%55%
20.528%72%49%

Sample: 729 matches

Games handicap

E. Rybakina −6.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes14%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 17.5in · 23 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Elena RybakinaKatarzyna Kawa
8Aces2
6Double faults3
58%First serves in51%
81%First-serve points won58%
38%Second-serve points won41%
6/17Break points converted3/10
9/12Service games held5/11
64%Service points won49%
51%Return points won36%
86Total points won65

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

E. RybakinaTourK. Kawa
Service points won64%56%54%
Return points won42%44%47%
Service games held82%63%60%
Breaks of serve33%37%44%
Aces per service game0.560.18
Double faults per game0.260.39
Sets with a tie-break9%7%
Tie-breaks won9/155/9
Wins in straight sets64%63%
Matches in the sample7053

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Elena Rybakina

Katarzyna Kawa

  • 22/10/26WBelinda Bencic#20WTA Ningbo · R167:5 6:2
  • 20/10/26WDaria Snigur#40WTA Ningbo · R321:6 6:2 6:4
  • 18/10/26WDaria Snigur#40WTA Ningbo · Q26:1 2:0
  • 17/10/26WKatie Volynets#81WTA Ningbo · Q16:1 3:4
  • 30/09/26LDaria Snigur#40WTA Beijing · R1286:3 4:6 5:7
  • 29/09/26WValeria Savinykh#555WTA Beijing · Q26:3 7:5
  • 28/09/26WRinko Matsuda#422WTA Beijing · Q17:6 2:6 6:3
  • 14/09/26LMaria Garcia Cid#462WTA 125 Valencia · R323:6 3:6
  • 08/09/26LEva Bennemann#292WTA 125 Antalya 4 · R322:6 5:7
  • 24/08/26LEkaterine Gorgodze#180WTA US Open · Q16:3 6:7 2:6

Elo over the last year

Elena RybakinaKatarzyna Kawa

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

E. RybakinaK. Kawa
Hard court43–884%8–947%
Clay10–377%20–1361%
Grass3–350%2–167%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Elena Rybakina

Katarzyna Kawa

See also