Challenger Wuning 3Challenger 50Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying

Saitoh vs Santillan 2:1: result and our tips

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Keisuke SaitohATP #550Elo 1501hard 1499
2:1final6:7(3) 6:1 6:4
Akira SantillanATP #324Elo 1572hard 1572

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoLost61%

Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 61%

No tie-break in recent matches: Saitoh 6 of 7, Santillan 16 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Keisuke Saitoh40%
Akira Santillan60%

Elo: K. Saitoh 40% · A. Santillan 60%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 K. Saitoh24%
2:1 K. Saitoh16%
2:1 A. Santillan21%
2:0 A. Santillan38%

First set

Keisuke Saitoh43%
Akira Santillan57%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.570%30%62%
20.562%38%54%
21.556%44%49%
22.549%51%42%
23.543%57%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.537%63%32%

Sample: 5,777 matches

Games handicap

Akira Santillan −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.0in · 30 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Keisuke SaitohAkira Santillan
3Aces11
3Double faults2
63%First serves in74%
66%First-serve points won65%
57%Second-serve points won35%
5/8Break points converted2/8
13/15Service games held9/14
63%Service points won57%
43%Return points won37%
100Total points won88

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

K. SaitohTourA. Santillan
Service points won65%62%63%
Return points won39%38%38%
Service games held81%76%76%
Breaks of serve28%24%24%
Aces per service game0.270.44
Double faults per game0.160.33
Sets with a tie-break6%10%
Tie-breaks won1/15/10
Wins in straight sets80%55%
Matches in the sample745

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Keisuke Saitoh

  • 07/10/26WHiroki Moriya#505Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:2 6:3
  • 06/10/26WDominik Palan#631Challenger Wuning 3 · R327:6 6:4
  • 05/10/26WYusuke Takahashi#727Challenger Wuning 3 · Q24:6 6:3 6:2
  • 04/10/26WZicong WangChallenger Wuning 3 · Q16:1 6:0
  • 29/09/26LMattia Bellucci#86Challenger Jingshan · Q22:6 2:6
  • 28/09/26WKoki Matsuda#481Challenger Jingshan · Q16:3 6:2
  • 02/11/25LKoki Matsuda#481Challenger Matsuyama · Q15:7 7:5 4:6
  • 14/07/25LAndres Martin#338Challenger Granby · Q11:6 5:7
  • 07/07/25LQuinn Vandecasteele#473Challenger Newport · Q24:6 6:7
  • 06/07/25WHans Hach VerdugoChallenger Newport · Q16:2 7:6

Akira Santillan

  • 07/10/26WYaroslav Demin#653Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:3 6:3
  • 05/10/26WLuca Castelnuovo#455Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:3 3:6 7:6
  • 29/09/26LLuka Pavlovic#207Challenger Jingshan · R322:6 4:6
  • 23/09/26LAlex Bolt#170ATP Hangzhou · Q21:6 6:2 4:6
  • 22/09/26WKaigaoge KangATP Hangzhou · Q16:3 6:0
  • 16/09/26LPavel Kotov#187Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R164:6 6:7
  • 14/09/26WYaojie ZengChallenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R327:5 6:3
  • 08/09/26LBernard Tomic#185Challenger Shanghai · R324:6 4:6
  • 03/09/26LIlya Ivashka#237Challenger Zhangjiagang · R164:6 6:4 1:6
  • 01/09/26WOmar Jasika#422Challenger Zhangjiagang · R326:2 6:3

Elo over the last year

Keisuke SaitohAkira Santillan

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

K. SaitohA. Santillan
Hard court5–271%19–1753%
Clay0–03–633%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Keisuke Saitoh

  • 04/10/26WZicong WangChallenger Wuning 3 · Q16:1 6:0
  • 05/10/26WYusuke Takahashi#727Challenger Wuning 3 · Q24:6 6:3 6:2
  • 06/10/26WDominik Palan#631Challenger Wuning 3 · R327:6 6:4
  • 07/10/26WHiroki Moriya#505Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:2 6:3

Akira Santillan

  • 05/10/26WLuca Castelnuovo#455Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:3 3:6 7:6
  • 07/10/26WYaroslav Demin#653Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:3 6:3

See also