Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Round of 32claybest of three sets

Schoen vs Gulin 0:2: result and our tips

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Patrick SchoenATP #343Elo 1671clay 1672
0:2final1:6 1:6
Svyatoslav GulinATP #545Elo 1684clay 1691

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Won61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Gulin: 12 matches in a row without a deciding set; No third set in recent matches: Schoen 10 of 12, Gulin 16 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 25.5Won67%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 67%

    Gulin: 13 matches in a row under 25.5 games; Under 25.5 games in recent matches: Schoen 10 of 12, Gulin 17 of 20 (tour average 70%)

  • Tie-break in Match: NoWon75%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 70% → with the players' profiles 75%

    Gulin: 7 matches in a row without a tie-break

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Won45%

Where the number comes from: market alone 43% → with the players' profiles 45%

Under 20.5 games in recent matches: Schoen 9 of 12, Gulin 10 of 20 (tour average 48%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Patrick Schoen58%
Svyatoslav Gulin42%

Elo: P. Schoen 47% · S. Gulin 53%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 P. Schoen37%
2:1 P. Schoen21%
2:1 S. Gulin18%
2:0 S. Gulin24%

First set

Patrick Schoen57%
Svyatoslav Gulin43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.570%30%68%
19.562%38%59%
20.555%45%52%
21.549%51%46%
22.544%56%40%
23.540%60%36%
24.537%63%34%

Sample: 4,863 matches

Games handicap

Patrick Schoen −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes26%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 14 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Patrick SchoenSvyatoslav Gulin
—Aces—
3Double faults1
77%First serves in68%
47%First-serve points won82%
20%Second-serve points won54%
0/0Break points converted5/7
2/7Service games held7/7
41%Service points won73%
28%Return points won59%
29Total points won55

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

P. SchoenTourS. Gulin
Service points won63%62%62%
Return points won41%38%41%
Service games held77%76%74%
Breaks of serve30%24%30%
Aces per service game0.270.32
Double faults per game0.200.21
Sets with a tie-break12%12%
Tie-breaks won3/37/14
Wins in straight sets75%79%
Matches in the sample1251

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Patrick Schoen

Svyatoslav Gulin

  • 19/10/26LPatrick Schoen#343Challenger Lisbon · Q20:6 3:6
  • 18/10/26WTakeru YuzukiChallenger Lisbon · Q16:4 6:4
  • 15/10/26LGianluca Cadenasso#183Challenger Catania · R165:7 4:6
  • 13/10/26WFranco Agamenone#359Challenger Catania · R327:5 6:2
  • 12/10/26WPedro Rodenas#623Challenger Catania · Q26:2 7:5
  • 11/10/26WTilen KovacChallenger Catania · Q16:1 6:1
  • 28/09/26LFederico Arnaboldi#469Challenger Bari · Q24:6 2:4
  • 27/09/26WLuis Carlos Alvarez Valdes#923Challenger Bari · Q17:5 6:1
  • 21/09/26LPavel Lagutin#390Challenger Plovdiv 4 · Q26:7 0:3
  • 20/09/26WRyo Tabata#933Challenger Plovdiv 4 · Q17:6 6:1

Elo over the last year

Patrick SchoenSvyatoslav Gulin

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

P. SchoenS. Gulin
Hard court0–05–550%
Clay8–467%24–1759%

Head to head

P. Schoen 1–0 S. Gulin

  • 19/10/26Winner: Patrick Schoen6:0 6:3

Road through the tournament

Patrick Schoen

Svyatoslav Gulin