ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Shelton vs Gea 0:2: result and our tips

·

Ben SheltonATP #4Elo 2190hard 2173
0:2final6:7(5) 6:7(3)
Arthur GeaATP #56Elo 1997hard 1995

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 24.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Shelton: 8 matches in a row under 24.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Shelton: 8 matches in a row without a deciding set

  • Match Winner: SheltonLost73%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 73%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Shelton won 8 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won37%

Where the number comes from: market alone 34% → with the players' profiles 37%

Gea: 3 matches in a row over 25.5 games; Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Shelton 11 of 20, Gea 7 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ben Shelton73%
Arthur Gea27%

Elo: B. Shelton 74% · A. Gea 27%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Shelton50%
2:1 B. Shelton23%
2:1 A. Gea13%
2:0 A. Gea15%

First set

Ben Shelton68%
Arthur Gea32%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 52%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%68%
20.567%33%59%
21.559%41%54%
22.553%47%45%
23.545%55%39%
24.539%61%38%
25.538%63%34%

Sample: 4,184 matches

Games handicap

Ben Shelton −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes51%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 23.0out · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Ben SheltonArthur Gea
7Aces4
2Double faults3
73%First serves in64%
64%First-serve points won76%
48%Second-serve points won50%
3/8Break points converted3/8
9/12Service games held9/12
59%Service points won66%
34%Return points won41%
79Total points won90

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. SheltonTourA. Gea
Service points won70%62%64%
Return points won33%38%40%
Service games held89%76%81%
Breaks of serve15%24%27%
Aces per service game0.680.46
Double faults per game0.200.32
Sets with a tie-break28%19%
Tie-breaks won30/4920/34
Wins in straight sets49%57%
Matches in the sample6271

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ben Shelton

Arthur Gea

Elo over the last year

Ben SheltonArthur Gea

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. SheltonA. Gea
Hard court29–1271%34–979%
Clay8–562%12–860%
Grass6–275%5–456%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Ben Shelton

Arthur Gea

See also