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ATP Basel500Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Shelton vs Kovacevic 2:1: result and our tips

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Ben SheltonATP #4Elo 2170hard 2152
2:1final6:7(4) 7:6(3) 7:6(4)
Aleksandar KovacevicATP #84Elo 1805hard 1788

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won67%

Where the number comes from: market alone 53% → with the players' profiles 67%

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Shelton 16 of 20, Kovacevic 14 of 20 (tour average 59%)

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost70%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Shelton: 9 matches in a row without a deciding set

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won33%

Where the number comes from: market alone 29% → with the players' profiles 33%

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Shelton 11 of 20, Kovacevic 9 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ben Shelton83%
Aleksandar Kovacevic17%

Elo: B. Shelton 89% · A. Kovacevic 11%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Shelton61%
2:1 B. Shelton21%
2:1 A. Kovacevic9%
2:0 A. Kovacevic9%

First set

Ben Shelton76%
Aleksandar Kovacevic24%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes29%
no71%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 51%market (no margin): 47%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%67%
20.566%34%59%
21.557%43%54%
22.549%51%45%
23.542%58%39%
24.535%65%38%
25.532%68%34%

Sample: 2,487 matches

Games handicap

B. Shelton −4.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes50%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 23.0out · 39 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Ben SheltonAleksandar Kovacevic
44Aces13
3Double faults3
63%First serves in73%
86%First-serve points won83%
68%Second-serve points won70%
0/1Break points converted0/4
18/18Service games held18/18
80%Service points won79%
21%Return points won21%
112Total points won110

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. SheltonTourA. Kovacevic
Service points won70%62%66%
Return points won33%38%31%
Service games held89%76%84%
Breaks of serve15%24%12%
Aces per service game0.680.76
Double faults per game0.210.27
Sets with a tie-break29%28%
Tie-breaks won29/4921/41
Wins in straight sets50%61%
Matches in the sample6158

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ben Shelton

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Elo over the last year

Ben SheltonAleksandar Kovacevic

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. SheltonA. Kovacevic
Hard court28–1270%15–2142%
Clay8–562%7–944%
Grass6–275%1–517%

Head to head

B. Shelton 2–1 A. Kovacevic

  • 19/11/22Winner: B. Shelton6:7 6:2 6:4
  • 11/11/22Winner: B. Shelton7:5 6:4
  • 19/07/21Winner: A. Kovacevic3:6 4:6

Road through the tournament

Ben Shelton

First match in this tournament.

Aleksandar Kovacevic

See also