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Challenger NingboChallenger 75Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Sultanov vs Honda 1:2: result and our tips

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Khumoyun SultanovATP #416Elo 1629hard 1628
1:2final6:3 5:7 4:6
Naoya HondaATP #637Elo 1468hard 1473

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost67%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Sultanov: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Khumoyun Sultanov76%
Naoya Honda24%

Elo: K. Sultanov 71% · N. Honda 29%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 K. Sultanov54%
2:1 K. Sultanov22%
2:1 N. Honda11%
2:0 N. Honda13%

First set

Khumoyun Sultanov70%
Naoya Honda30%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 50%market (no margin): 47%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%71%
19.566%34%62%
20.558%43%54%
21.550%50%49%
22.544%56%42%
23.538%62%37%
24.534%66%35%

Sample: 3,701 matches

Games handicap

K. Sultanov −4.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 21.5in · 31 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Khumoyun SultanovNaoya Honda
5Aces4
0Double faults8
67%First serves in50%
63%First-serve points won73%
52%Second-serve points won47%
4/9Break points converted5/8
11/16Service games held11/15
60%Service points won60%
40%Return points won40%
92Total points won94

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

K. SultanovTourN. Honda
Service points won67%62%65%
Return points won39%38%39%
Service games held84%76%80%
Breaks of serve25%24%25%
Aces per service game0.630.45
Double faults per game0.210.30
Sets with a tie-break19%13%
Tie-breaks won6/93/7
Wins in straight sets87%83%
Matches in the sample2223

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Khumoyun Sultanov

Naoya Honda

  • 25/10/26WRyuki Matsuda#659Challenger Ningbo · Q16:3 6:3
  • 18/10/26LKasidit Samrej#368Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q16:4 3:6 5:7
  • 04/10/26LKristjan TammChallenger Wuning 3 · Q16:7 4:6
  • 28/09/26LMarat Sharipov#223Challenger Jingshan · Q16:7 2:6
  • 17/09/26LPetr Bar Biryukov#331Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R163:6 4:6
  • 16/09/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#95Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R322:6 7:6
  • 14/09/26WJesse Flores#810Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · Q26:4 6:4
  • 13/09/26WHao DuanChallenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · Q16:2 6:3
  • 01/06/26LAlexander Donski#515Challenger Centurion 2 · Q26:2 3:6 4:6
  • 31/05/26WAndreas ScottChallenger Centurion 2 · Q13:6 7:6 6:3

Elo over the last year

Khumoyun SultanovNaoya Honda

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

K. SultanovN. Honda
Hard court13–668%12–1152%
Clay2–167%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Khumoyun Sultanov

Naoya Honda