ATP Vienna500Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Tien vs de Minaur: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1h 27mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Learner Tien49%
Alex de Minaur51%
Elo: L. Tien 43% · A. de Minaur 57%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 L. Tien29%
2:1 L. Tien20%
2:1 A. de Minaur20%
2:0 A. de Minaur31%
First set
Learner Tien49%
Alex de Minaur51%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 50%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.4
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 75% | 25% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 67% | 33% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 61% | 39% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 53% | 47% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 46% | 54% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 44% | 56% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
Sample: 5,268 matches
Games handicap
A. de Minaur −0.549%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes44%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Tien | Tour | A. de Minaur | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 80% | 76% | 81% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 26% |
| Aces per service game | 0.44 | 0.37 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.28 | 0.24 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 17% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 21/29 | 18/28 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 66% | |
| Matches in the sample | 60 | 64 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Learner Tien
- 26/10/26WLuca Van Assche#46ATP Vienna · R326:3 6:1
- 12/10/26LCasper Ruud#25ATP Shanghai · R324:6 6:7
- 10/10/26WZachary Svajda#76ATP Shanghai · R647:5 7:5
- 01/10/26LHubert Hurkacz#28ATP Beijing · R327:5 3:6 4:6
- 07/09/26LKaren Khachanov#24ATP US Open · R165:7 6:4 7:6 1:6 4:6
- 06/09/26WJakub Menšík#16ATP US Open · R326:3 1:6 6:7 6:3 6:4
- 03/09/26WGael MonfilsATP US Open · R646:3 6:4 6:3
- 31/08/26WNuno Borges#53ATP US Open · R1286:4 6:1 6:2
- 19/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#9ATP Cincinnati · R324:6 6:4 4:6
- 16/08/26WSebastián Báez#49ATP Cincinnati · R646:3 7:6
Alex de Minaur
- 26/10/26WTomáš Macháč#71ATP Vienna · R321:6 6:4 6:3
- 15/10/26LAlexander Zverev#2ATP Shanghai · QF4:6 4:6
- 13/10/26WKaren Khachanov#24ATP Shanghai · R166:3 6:4
- 11/10/26WRei Sakamoto#125ATP Shanghai · R327:6 6:4
- 06/10/26LNovak Djokovic#12ATP Beijing · F6:7 1:0
- 05/10/26WHubert Hurkacz#28ATP Beijing · SF6:4 3:2
- 04/10/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP Beijing · QF1:6 6:2 6:3
- 03/10/26WQuentin Halys#45ATP Beijing · R163:6 7:6 7:5
- 01/10/26WMariano Navone#43ATP Beijing · R327:6 6:2
- 03/09/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP US Open · R644:6 5:7 2:6
Elo over the last year
Learner TienAlex de Minaur
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Tien | A. de Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 29–1467% | 26–1465% |
| Clay | 9–469% | 7–654% |
| Grass | 2–250% | 8–373% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Learner Tien
- 26/10/26WLuca Van Assche#46ATP Vienna · R326:3 6:1
Alex de Minaur
- 26/10/26WTomáš Macháč#71ATP Vienna · R321:6 6:4 6:3