Macháč vs de Minaur 1:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Machac lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches, de Minaur won the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Other tips
- Match Winner: de MinaurWon71%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 71%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
de Minaur won 7 of the last 10 matches
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: T. Macháč 30% · A. de Minaur 70%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 71% | 29% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 63% | 38% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 56% | 44% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 49% | 52% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 41% | 59% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 39% | 61% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 36% | 65% | 35% |
Sample: 4,809 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Under 22.5out · 26 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Tomáš Macháč | Alex de Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aces | 2 |
| 3 | Double faults | 3 |
| 68% | First serves in | 53% |
| 64% | First-serve points won | 63% |
| 41% | Second-serve points won | 47% |
| 5/8 | Break points converted | 5/11 |
| 8/13 | Service games held | 8/13 |
| 57% | Service points won | 56% |
| 44% | Return points won | 43% |
| 81 | Total points won | 79 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| T. Macháč | Tour | A. de Minaur | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 36% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 77% | 76% | 81% |
| Breaks of serve | 21% | 24% | 26% |
| Aces per service game | 0.41 | 0.37 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.20 | 0.24 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 16% | 18% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/16 | 18/28 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 68% | |
| Matches in the sample | 39 | 63 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Tomáš Macháč
- 24/10/26WCorentin Moutet#103ATP Vienna · Q16:4 6:4
- 22/10/26LKaren Khachanov#24ATP Almaty · R162:6 6:4 6:7
- 21/10/26WZangar NurlanulyATP Almaty · R326:2 6:0
- 16/10/26LLiam Draxl#194Challenger Jinan · QF4:6 6:3 4:6
- 15/10/26WAleksandar Vukic#116Challenger Jinan · R166:2 6:1
- 13/10/26WAlexandre Muller#130Challenger Jinan · R326:3 6:4
- 09/10/26LAlexander Bublik#20ATP Shanghai · R644:6 6:7
- 07/10/26WZhizhen Zhang#166ATP Shanghai · R1281:6 7:6 6:2
- 01/10/26LAlex Molcan#80ATP Beijing · R323:6 2:6
- 29/09/26LArthur Gea#44ATP Beijing · Q23:6 4:6
Alex de Minaur
- 15/10/26LAlexander Zverev#2ATP Shanghai · QF4:6 4:6
- 13/10/26WKaren Khachanov#24ATP Shanghai · R166:3 6:4
- 11/10/26WRei Sakamoto#125ATP Shanghai · R327:6 6:4
- 06/10/26LNovak Djokovic#12ATP Beijing · F6:7 1:0
- 05/10/26WHubert Hurkacz#28ATP Beijing · SF6:4 3:2
- 04/10/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP Beijing · QF1:6 6:2 6:3
- 03/10/26WQuentin Halys#45ATP Beijing · R163:6 7:6 7:5
- 01/10/26WMariano Navone#43ATP Beijing · R327:6 6:2
- 03/09/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP US Open · R644:6 5:7 2:6
- 02/09/26WAndrea Guerrieri#165ATP US Open · R1286:2 6:2 6:4
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| T. Macháč | A. de Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 14–1450% | 25–1464% |
| Clay | 6–555% | 7–654% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 8–373% |
Head to head
T. Macháč 0–1 A. de Minaur
- 09/04/25Winner: A. de Minaur6:3 0:6 3:6
Road through the tournament
Tomáš Macháč
- 24/10/26WCorentin Moutet#103ATP Vienna · Q16:4 6:4
Alex de Minaur
First match in this tournament.