Challenger HelsinkiChallenger 175Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets
Travaglia vs Moeller: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Stefano Travaglia50%
Marvin Moeller50%
Elo: S. Travaglia 48% · M. Moeller 52%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 S. Travaglia31%
2:1 S. Travaglia19%
2:1 M. Moeller19%
2:0 M. Moeller31%
First set
Stefano Travaglia50%
Marvin Moeller50%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 51%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 74% | 26% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 66% | 34% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 58% | 42% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 53% | 47% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 46% | 54% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 42% | 58% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
Sample: 5,438 matches
Games handicap
S. Travaglia −0.549%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes33%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| S. Travaglia | Tour | M. Moeller | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 62% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 77% | 76% | 77% |
| Breaks of serve | 28% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.53 | 0.28 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.20 | 0.23 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 24% | 16% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 11/35 | 13/18 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 56% | |
| Matches in the sample | 64 | 49 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Stefano Travaglia
- 03/11/26LJurij Rodionov#118Challenger Bratislava 2 · R326:7 1:6
- 30/10/26LOtto Virtanen#127Challenger Brest · QF6:7 4:6
- 29/10/26WLaslo Djere#133Challenger Brest · R167:5 6:2
- 27/10/26WPierre-Hugues Herbert#250Challenger Brest · R326:7 7:6 7:6
- 16/10/26LMaks Kaśnikowski#207Challenger Olbia · QF2:6 5:7
- 14/10/26WValentin Royer#119Challenger Olbia · R166:2 7:5
- 13/10/26WDurasovic#498Challenger Olbia · R323:6 7:5 6:3
- 22/09/26LMarvin Moeller#229Challenger Genoa 2 · R324:6 6:4 2:6
- 14/09/26LThiago Monteiro#225Challenger Szczecin · R323:6 6:7
- 10/09/26LEnrico Dalla Valle#304Challenger Genoa · R167:6 1:6 4:6
Marvin Moeller
- 14/11/26WJonas Forejtek#303Challenger Monastir · SF7:6 6:1
- 13/11/26WLorenzo Giustino#289Challenger Monastir · QF6:2 4:6 6:2
- 12/11/26WAziz Ouakaa#483Challenger Monastir · R164:6 6:2 7:6
- 10/11/26WNikolai Barsukov#662Challenger Monastir · R326:2 2:6 6:4
- 03/11/26LHugo Grenier#418Challenger Taranto · R325:7 3:6
- 16/10/26LGianluca Cadenasso#214Challenger Catania · QF5:7 6:4 6:7
- 15/10/26WCarlo Alberto Caniato#323Challenger Catania · R166:4 3:6 6:2
- 13/10/26WCarlos Sanchez Jover#328Challenger Catania · R327:6 6:3
- 09/10/26LMatej Dodig#136Challenger Braga · QF2:6 3:6
- 08/10/26WRyan Nijboer#382Challenger Braga · R166:3 6:3
Elo over the last year
Stefano TravagliaMarvin Moeller
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| S. Travaglia | M. Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 18–1162% | 8–467% |
| Clay | 15–1845% | 26–1170% |
| Grass | 1–150% | 0–0 |
Head to head
S. Travaglia 0–1 M. Moeller
- 22/09/26Winner: M. Moeller4:6 6:4 2:6
Upcoming matches
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