ATP Almaty250Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Tsitsipas vs Kukushkin 2:0: result and our tips

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Stefanos TsitsipasATP #39Elo 2051hard 2018
2:0final6:1 6:2
Mikhail KukushkinATP #389Elo 1726hard 1734

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Lost60%

Where the number comes from: market alone 52% → with the players' profiles 60%

Tsitsipas: 20 matches in a row over 18.5 games; Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Tsitsipas 20 of 20, Kukushkin 14 of 20 (tour average 75%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 20.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: market alone 34% → with the players' profiles 39%

Over 20.5 games in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches; Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Tsitsipas 15 of 20, Kukushkin 13 of 20 (tour average 58%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Stefanos Tsitsipas94%
Mikhail Kukushkin6%

Elo: S. Tsitsipas 84% · M. Kukushkin 16%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Tsitsipas78%
2:1 S. Tsitsipas14%
2:1 M. Kukushkin4%
2:0 M. Kukushkin4%

First set

Stefanos Tsitsipas86%
Mikhail Kukushkin14%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes18%
no82%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.0 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 20.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.582%18%90%
17.573%28%83%
18.561%39%75%
19.550%50%66%
20.541%59%58%
21.534%66%53%
22.528%72%45%

Sample: 1,230 matches

Games handicap

Stefanos Tsitsipas −5.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes27%

tour average 37%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 20.0in · 15 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Stefanos TsitsipasMikhail Kukushkin
8Aces0
—Double faults—
57%First serves in70%
83%First-serve points won49%
82%Second-serve points won33%
4/8Break points converted0/0
8/8Service games held3/7
83%Service points won44%
56%Return points won18%
61Total points won29

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. TsitsipasTourM. Kukushkin
Service points won68%62%63%
Return points won34%38%39%
Service games held87%76%79%
Breaks of serve17%24%25%
Aces per service game0.590.29
Double faults per game0.190.11
Sets with a tie-break25%21%
Tie-breaks won13/3313/22
Wins in straight sets58%78%
Matches in the sample5346

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Mikhail Kukushkin

Elo over the last year

Stefanos TsitsipasMikhail Kukushkin

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. TsitsipasM. Kukushkin
Hard court20–1459%26–1465%
Clay10–663%1–420%
Grass1–233%0–20%

Head to head

S. Tsitsipas 4–0 M. Kukushkin

  • 17/04/19Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas6:3 7:5
  • 24/02/19Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas7:5 7:6
  • 12/05/18Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas5:7 6:3 7:6
  • 26/02/18Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas6:2 6:7 6:3

Road through the tournament

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Mikhail Kukushkin