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WTA TokyoWTA 500Qualifying round 2hardbest of three setsqualifying

Valentova vs Zhang 2:0: result and our tips

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Tereza ValentovaWTA #87Elo 1865hard 1855
2:0final7:5 6:2
Shuai ZhangWTA #93Elo 1736hard 1718

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.5Won59%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Valentova 16 of 20, Zhang 14 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: ValentovaWon67%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Valentova won 7 of the last 10 matches; Zhang lost 7 of the last 10 matches

  • 1st Set Winner: ValentovaWon63%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Valentova won the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches, Zhang lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Set Betting: Valentova 2-0Won44%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Valentova won 2-0 in 8 of the last 20 matches, Zhang lost 0-2 in 10 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Tereza Valentova67%
Shuai Zhang33%

Elo: T. Valentova 69% · S. Zhang 31%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Valentova44%
2:1 T. Valentova21%
2:1 S. Zhang15%
2:0 S. Zhang19%

First set

Tereza Valentova63%
Shuai Zhang37%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 47%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.577%23%72%
18.568%32%64%
19.560%40%56%
20.553%47%49%
21.547%53%44%
22.541%59%38%
23.537%63%34%

Sample: 2,131 matches

Games handicap

T. Valentova −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.0in · 20 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Tereza ValentovaShuai Zhang
6Aces1
0Double faults3
58%First serves in70%
82%First-serve points won53%
56%Second-serve points won59%
4/7Break points converted1/5
9/10Service games held6/10
71%Service points won54%
46%Return points won29%
68Total points won48

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. ValentovaTourS. Zhang
Service points won55%56%57%
Return points won46%44%42%
Service games held64%63%65%
Breaks of serve41%37%32%
Aces per service game0.220.18
Double faults per game0.390.25
Sets with a tie-break13%5%
Tie-breaks won7/145/6
Wins in straight sets61%64%
Matches in the sample4857

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Tereza Valentova

  • 24/10/26WEn-Shuo Liang#332WTA Tokyo · Q16:2 3:6 6:2
  • 21/10/26LLilli Tagger#53WTA Osaka · R165:7 3:6
  • 20/10/26WShuai Zhang#93WTA Osaka · R326:2 1:6 6:4
  • 29/08/26LKatie Volynets#81WTA 125 Philadelphia · F3:6 5:7
  • 28/08/26WJulia Grabher#122WTA 125 Philadelphia · SF6:3 6:1
  • 27/08/26WKylie Collins#320WTA 125 Philadelphia · QF6:1 6:2
  • 26/08/26WFangran Tian#245WTA 125 Philadelphia · R166:3 6:1
  • 24/08/26WAriana Arseneault#329WTA 125 Philadelphia · R327:6 6:1
  • 17/08/26LElina Svitolina#6WTA Cincinnati · R646:3 6:7 0:6
  • 14/08/26WMary Stoiana#113WTA Cincinnati · R1286:2 7:6

Shuai Zhang

Elo over the last year

Tereza ValentovaShuai Zhang

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. ValentovaS. Zhang
Hard court21–1362%15–1944%
Clay5–456%5–936%
Grass2–340%5–456%

Head to head

T. Valentova 1–0 S. Zhang

  • 20/10/26Winner: T. Valentova6:2 1:6 6:4

Road through the tournament

Tereza Valentova

Shuai Zhang