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Challenger MetzChallenger 175Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Vandermeersch vs Kachmazov: prediction and tips

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Cyril VandermeerschATP #512Elo 1411hard 1403
-:-
Alibek KachmazovATP #347Elo 1685hard 1687

Our tips

Tip in 6h 58m

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Cyril Vandermeersch25%
Alibek Kachmazov75%

Elo: C. Vandermeersch 16% · A. Kachmazov 84%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Vandermeersch14%
2:1 C. Vandermeersch11%
2:1 A. Kachmazov22%
2:0 A. Kachmazov52%

First set

Cyril Vandermeersch31%
Alibek Kachmazov69%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.571%29%71%
19.563%38%62%
20.554%46%54%
21.548%52%49%
22.542%58%42%
23.536%64%37%
24.534%66%35%

Sample: 4,076 matches

Games handicap

A. Kachmazov −4.544%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes31%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. VandermeerschTourA. Kachmazov
Service points won58%62%63%
Return points won36%38%39%
Service games held67%76%79%
Breaks of serve21%24%24%
Aces per service game0.320.59
Double faults per game0.310.23
Sets with a tie-break0%29%
Tie-breaks won0/011/14
Wins in straight sets100%64%
Matches in the sample1219

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Cyril Vandermeersch

Alibek Kachmazov

  • 01/11/26LChun-Chien HouChallenger Taipei · Q12:6 1:3
  • 29/10/26LSeongchan Hong#838Challenger Seoul · R167:6 3:6 1:6
  • 27/10/26WRio Noguchi#233Challenger Seoul · R326:3 6:1
  • 26/10/26WWoobin ShinChallenger Seoul · Q26:0 4:6 6:3
  • 25/10/26WDong Ju Kim#748Challenger Seoul · Q14:6 6:3 6:1
  • 13/10/26LJay Friend#256Challenger Jinan · R327:6 5:7 3:6
  • 11/10/26WJay Friend#256Challenger Wuning 3 · F4:6 7:6 7:6
  • 10/10/26WOmar Jasika#301Challenger Wuning 3 · SF7:6 6:3
  • 09/10/26WFajing Sun#297Challenger Wuning 3 · QF6:3 6:4
  • 08/10/26WEvan Zhu#461Challenger Wuning 3 · R167:6 7:6

Elo over the last year

Cyril VandermeerschAlibek Kachmazov

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. VandermeerschA. Kachmazov
Hard court3–925%11–858%

Head to head

C. Vandermeersch 1–0 A. Kachmazov

  • 12/03/25Winner: C. Vandermeersch7:5 6:3

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