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Challenger MetzChallenger 175Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Nardi vs Karol: prediction and tips

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Luca NardiATP #263Elo 1760hard 1751
-:-
Milos KarolATP #594Elo 1570hard 1556

Our tips

Tip in 5h 48m

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Luca Nardi78%
Milos Karol22%

Elo: L. Nardi 75% · M. Karol 25%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Nardi56%
2:1 L. Nardi22%
2:1 M. Karol10%
2:0 M. Karol12%

First set

Luca Nardi72%
Milos Karol28%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 54%market (no margin): 52%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%71%
19.563%37%62%
20.554%46%54%
21.547%53%49%
22.541%59%42%
23.535%65%37%
24.533%67%35%

Sample: 3,488 matches

Games handicap

L. Nardi −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes33%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. NardiTourM. Karol
Service points won62%62%64%
Return points won39%38%36%
Service games held76%76%80%
Breaks of serve25%24%19%
Aces per service game0.350.82
Double faults per game0.260.37
Sets with a tie-break22%21%
Tie-breaks won9/227/16
Wins in straight sets79%50%
Matches in the sample4031

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Luca Nardi

Milos Karol

  • 02/11/26LNishesh Basavareddy#126Challenger Bratislava 2 · R323:6 3:6
  • 18/10/26LKai Wehnelt#645Challenger Lisbon · Q13:6 6:3 2:6
  • 15/10/26LMarco Trungelliti#88Challenger Maia · R162:6 0:6
  • 13/10/26WFlorian Broska#318Challenger Maia · R326:3 6:4
  • 12/10/26WOleksii Krutykh#432Challenger Maia · Q26:1 5:7 7:6
  • 11/10/26WDali Blanch#321Challenger Maia · Q16:3 3:6 6:3
  • 04/10/26LTiago Cacao#667Challenger Braga · Q14:6 4:6
  • 16/06/26LJoao Lucas Reis Da Silva#190Challenger Poznan · R323:6 7:5 3:6
  • 15/06/26WLuca Castelnuovo#434Challenger Poznan · Q23:6 6:2 6:3
  • 14/06/26WMichael Vrbensky#737Challenger Poznan · Q17:6 6:1

Elo over the last year

Luca NardiMilos Karol

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. NardiM. Karol
Hard court13–1350%5–550%
Clay3–538%9–1243%
Grass3–350%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Upcoming matches

See also