ATP Tour Finals TurinFinalsRound robinhard, indoorbest of three sets
Medvedev vs Tiafoe: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from Elo (no market). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Daniil Medvedev60%
Frances Tiafoe40%
Elo: D. Medvedev 60% · F. Tiafoe 40%
from Elo (no market)
Set score
2:0 D. Medvedev38%
2:1 D. Medvedev21%
2:1 F. Tiafoe17%
2:0 F. Tiafoe24%
First set
Daniil Medvedev56%
Frances Tiafoe44%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
Expected total: 24.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 73% | 27% | 67% |
| 20.5 | 65% | 35% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 59% | 41% | 53% |
| 22.5 | 52% | 48% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 45% | 55% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 41% | 59% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 34% |
Sample: 16,186 matches
Games handicap
D. Medvedev −2.548%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes44%
tour average 37%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| D. Medvedev | Tour | F. Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 36% |
| Service games held | 84% | 76% | 84% |
| Breaks of serve | 28% | 24% | 22% |
| Aces per service game | 0.73 | 0.47 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.32 | 0.17 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 16% | 21% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/28 | 19/39 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 52% | |
| Matches in the sample | 71 | 65 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Daniil Medvedev
- 04/11/26LIgnacio Buse#32ATP Paris · R324:6 4:6
- 31/10/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP Vienna · SF4:6 6:7
- 30/10/26WAdrian Mannarino#61ATP Vienna · QF6:2 6:3
- 29/10/26WCameron Norrie#53ATP Vienna · R164:6 6:3 7:6
- 28/10/26WDaniel Merida#42ATP Vienna · R327:6 6:1
- 25/10/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#86ATP Almaty · F6:7 6:1 6:3
- 24/10/26WAlexander Bublik#26ATP Almaty · SF6:3
- 23/10/26WTerence Atmane#75ATP Almaty · QF6:4 6:4
- 22/10/26WSho Shimabukuro#123ATP Almaty · R166:2 6:1
- 17/10/26LRafael Jodar#11ATP Shanghai · SF3:6 4:6
Frances Tiafoe
- 04/11/26LQuentin Halys#45ATP Paris · R323:6 6:1 6:7
- 28/10/26LLorenzo Musetti#25ATP Vienna · R326:7 5:7
- 11/10/26LAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#17ATP Shanghai · R326:7 6:4 6:7
- 09/10/26WYannick Hanfmann#67ATP Shanghai · R646:4 6:4
- 02/10/26LArthur Fils#7ATP Tokyo · R163:6 5:7
- 01/10/26WKei NishikoriATP Tokyo · R326:4 6:4
- 11/09/26LBen Shelton#4ATP US Open · SF6:4 3:6 3:6 5:7
- 08/09/26WAlex Michelsen#35ATP US Open · QF5:7 3:6 7:5 6:3 7:6
- 06/09/26WDaniil Medvedev#5ATP US Open · R167:6 6:4 7:6
- 04/09/26WValentin Vacherot#27ATP US Open · R326:4 6:2 6:4
Elo over the last year
Daniil MedvedevFrances Tiafoe
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| D. Medvedev | F. Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 41–1277% | 28–1565% |
| Clay | 5–456% | 7–464% |
| Grass | 6–367% | 9–282% |
Head to head
D. Medvedev 6–1 F. Tiafoe
- 06/09/26Winner: F. Tiafoe6:7 4:6 6:7
- 07/01/26Winner: D. Medvedev6:3 6:2
- 18/03/23Winner: D. Medvedev7:5 7:6
- 30/03/21Winner: D. Medvedev6:4 6:3
- 07/09/20Winner: D. Medvedev6:4 6:1 6:0
- 21/01/20Winner: D. Medvedev6:3 4:6 6:4 6:2
- 01/08/19Winner: D. Medvedev6:2 7:5
Upcoming matches
- Francesco Maestrelli vs Sumit Nagal, · Challenger Hersonissos 3
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- Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Jodar, · ATP Tour Finals Turin
- Ben Shelton vs Arthur Fils, · ATP Tour Finals Turin
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe, · ATP Tour Finals Turin