Skip to content
ATP Tour Finals TurinFinalsRound robinhard, indoorbest of three sets

Alcaraz vs Tiafoe: prediction and tips

·

Carlos AlcarazATP #3Elo 2427hard 2378
-:-
Frances TiafoeATP #8Elo 2100hard 2062

Our tips

Tip in 3d 9h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Carlos Alcaraz89%
Frances Tiafoe11%

Elo: C. Alcaraz 86% · F. Tiafoe 14%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Alcaraz70%
2:1 C. Alcaraz18%
2:1 F. Tiafoe6%
2:0 F. Tiafoe7%

First set

Carlos Alcaraz81%
Frances Tiafoe20%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes23%
no77%

Total games

Expected total: 22.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.579%21%83%
18.570%30%75%
19.559%41%67%
20.550%50%59%
21.543%58%53%
22.535%65%45%
23.529%72%39%

Sample: 1,747 matches

Games handicap

C. Alcaraz −5.543%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes34%

tour average 38%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. AlcarazTourF. Tiafoe
Service points won67%62%66%
Return points won41%38%36%
Service games held87%76%84%
Breaks of serve29%24%22%
Aces per service game0.390.47
Double faults per game0.180.17
Sets with a tie-break23%21%
Tie-breaks won18/2819/39
Wins in straight sets77%52%
Matches in the sample4965

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Carlos Alcaraz

Frances Tiafoe

Elo over the last year

Carlos AlcarazFrances Tiafoe

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. AlcarazF. Tiafoe
Hard court38–588%28–1565%
Clay5–183%7–464%
Grass0–09–282%

Head to head

C. Alcaraz 2–1 F. Tiafoe

  • 05/07/24Winner: C. Alcaraz5:7 6:2 4:6 7:6 6:2
  • 09/09/22Winner: C. Alcaraz6:7 6:3 6:1 6:7 6:3
  • 20/04/21Winner: F. Tiafoe4:6 6:7

Upcoming matches

See also