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ATP ParisMasters 1000Semifinalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Ruud vs Alcaraz: prediction and tips

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Casper RuudATP #23Elo 2122hard 2058
-:-awaiting result
Carlos AlcarazATP #3Elo 2419hard 2368

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Set Betting: Alcaraz 2-061%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Ruud lost 0-2 in 4 of the last 20 matches, Alcaraz won 2-0 in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%); Alcaraz won 2-0 in 3 of their 5 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 23.565%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 67% → with the players' profiles 65%

    Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Ruud 15 of 20, Alcaraz 14 of 20 (tour average 61%)

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: Yes39%

Where the number comes from: market alone 34% → with the players' profiles 39%

A tie-break in recent matches: Ruud 10 of 20, Alcaraz 11 of 20 (tour average 38%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Casper Ruud17%
Carlos Alcaraz83%

Elo: C. Ruud 14% · C. Alcaraz 86%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Ruud10%
2:1 C. Ruud9%
2:1 C. Alcaraz21%
2:0 C. Alcaraz61%

First set

Casper Ruud25%
Carlos Alcaraz75%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes29%
no71%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%76%
19.566%34%67%
20.557%43%59%
21.549%51%54%
22.542%58%46%
23.535%65%39%
24.532%68%38%

Sample: 2,555 matches

Games handicap

C. Alcaraz −4.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 38%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. RuudTourC. Alcaraz
Service points won67%62%67%
Return points won37%38%41%
Service games held86%76%87%
Breaks of serve22%24%30%
Aces per service game0.530.38
Double faults per game0.200.18
Sets with a tie-break17%23%
Tie-breaks won10/2118/29
Wins in straight sets69%74%
Matches in the sample5049

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Casper Ruud

Carlos Alcaraz

Elo over the last year

Casper RuudCarlos Alcaraz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. RuudC. Alcaraz
Hard court15–1158%38–588%
Clay17–674%5–183%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

C. Ruud 1–5 C. Alcaraz

  • 11/03/26Winner: C. Alcaraz1:6 6:7
  • 29/09/25Winner: C. Alcaraz6:3 3:6 4:6
  • 11/11/24Winner: C. Ruud6:1 7:5
  • 02/10/23Winner: C. Alcaraz4:6 2:6
  • 11/09/22Winner: C. Alcaraz4:6 6:2 6:7 3:6
  • 03/04/22Winner: C. Alcaraz5:7 4:6

Road through the tournament

Casper Ruud

Carlos Alcaraz

Upcoming matches

See also