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ATP Vienna500Semifinalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Medvedev vs Alcaraz 0:2: result and our tips

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Daniil MedvedevATP #5Elo 2165hard 2156
0:2final4:6 6:7(2)
Carlos AlcarazATP #3Elo 2403hard 2346

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 23.5Won58%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 23.5 games in 5 of their 5 head-to-head matches; Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Medvedev 14 of 20, Alcaraz 15 of 20 (tour average 60%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: AlcarazWon67%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Alcaraz won 9 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won63%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in 5 of their 5 head-to-head matches; No third set in recent matches: Medvedev 14 of 20, Alcaraz 16 of 20 (tour average 64%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 21.5Lost43%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 21.5 games in 4 of their 5 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Daniil Medvedev31%
Carlos Alcaraz69%

Elo: D. Medvedev 25% · C. Alcaraz 75%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Medvedev18%
2:1 D. Medvedev13%
2:1 C. Alcaraz23%
2:0 C. Alcaraz46%

First set

Daniil Medvedev36%
Carlos Alcaraz65%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.571%29%68%
20.563%37%60%
21.557%43%54%
22.549%51%46%
23.542%58%40%
24.539%61%38%
25.536%64%35%

Sample: 4,948 matches

Games handicap

C. Alcaraz −3.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes43%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Daniil MedvedevCarlos Alcaraz
6Aces7
2Double faults2
68%First serves in68%
65%First-serve points won78%
41%Second-serve points won38%
2/4Break points converted3/4
8/11Service games held9/11
57%Service points won65%
35%Return points won43%
62Total points won72

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. MedvedevTourC. Alcaraz
Service points won66%62%67%
Return points won41%38%41%
Service games held84%76%87%
Breaks of serve28%24%30%
Aces per service game0.720.38
Double faults per game0.320.19
Sets with a tie-break16%23%
Tie-breaks won10/2816/26
Wins in straight sets69%74%
Matches in the sample7045

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Daniil Medvedev

Carlos Alcaraz

Elo over the last year

Daniil MedvedevCarlos Alcaraz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. MedvedevC. Alcaraz
Hard court41–1179%34–587%
Clay5–456%5–183%
Grass6–367%0–0

Head to head

D. Medvedev 3–6 C. Alcaraz

  • 14/03/26Winner: D. Medvedev6:3 7:6
  • 01/10/24Winner: C. Alcaraz5:7 3:6
  • 12/07/24Winner: C. Alcaraz7:6 3:6 4:6 4:6
  • 17/03/24Winner: C. Alcaraz6:7 1:6
  • 17/11/23Winner: C. Alcaraz4:6 4:6
  • 08/09/23Winner: D. Medvedev7:6 6:1 3:6 6:3
  • 14/07/23Winner: C. Alcaraz3:6 3:6 3:6
  • 19/03/23Winner: C. Alcaraz3:6 2:6
  • 01/07/21Winner: D. Medvedev6:4 6:1 6:2

Road through the tournament

Daniil Medvedev

Carlos Alcaraz

See also