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ATP Vienna500Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Mannarino vs Medvedev 0:2: result and our tips

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Adrian MannarinoATP #73Elo 1898hard 1876
0:2final2:6 3:6
Daniil MedvedevATP #5Elo 2162hard 2152

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Set Betting: Medvedev 2-0Won58%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Mannarino lost 0-2 in 8 of the last 20 matches, Medvedev won 2-0 in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%); Medvedev won 2-0 in 4 of their 7 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 24.5Won66%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Under 24.5 games in 6 of their 7 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesLost39%

Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 39%

Medvedev: 3 matches in a row with a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Adrian Mannarino19%
Daniil Medvedev81%

Elo: A. Mannarino 17% · D. Medvedev 83%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Mannarino11%
2:1 A. Mannarino10%
2:1 D. Medvedev21%
2:0 D. Medvedev59%

First set

Adrian Mannarino26%
Daniil Medvedev74%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes31%
no69%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 50%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%76%
19.566%34%67%
20.557%43%59%
21.550%50%54%
22.543%57%46%
23.537%63%39%
24.534%66%38%

Sample: 2,868 matches

Games handicap

D. Medvedev −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 21.5out · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Adrian MannarinoDaniil Medvedev
2Aces5
0Double faults1
76%First serves in71%
55%First-serve points won77%
47%Second-serve points won50%
0/0Break points converted4/11
5/9Service games held8/8
53%Service points won69%
31%Return points won47%
48Total points won63

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. MannarinoTourD. Medvedev
Service points won63%62%66%
Return points won35%38%41%
Service games held76%76%84%
Breaks of serve19%24%28%
Aces per service game0.400.72
Double faults per game0.170.32
Sets with a tie-break17%16%
Tie-breaks won14/2611/29
Wins in straight sets48%67%
Matches in the sample6170

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Adrian Mannarino

Daniil Medvedev

Elo over the last year

Adrian MannarinoDaniil Medvedev

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. MannarinoD. Medvedev
Hard court21–2150%41–1179%
Clay0–80%5–456%
Grass6–555%6–367%

Head to head

A. Mannarino 4–5 D. Medvedev

  • 12/06/25Winner: D. Medvedev6:7 4:6
  • 28/09/24Winner: D. Medvedev6:7 2:6
  • 06/07/23Winner: D. Medvedev3:6 3:6 6:7
  • 15/06/23Winner: A. Mannarino4:6 6:4 6:2
  • 11/06/22Winner: D. Medvedev5:7 5:7
  • 23/03/19Winner: D. Medvedev2:6 1:6
  • 06/07/18Winner: A. Mannarino6:4 6:3 4:6 5:7 6:3
  • 07/08/17Winner: A. Mannarino6:3 6:1
  • 09/06/16Winner: A. Mannarino6:4 6:2

Road through the tournament

Adrian Mannarino

Daniil Medvedev

See also