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ATP Almaty250Semifinalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Medvedev vs Bublik 1:0: result and our tips

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Daniil MedvedevATP #5Elo 2147hard 2138
1:0retired6:3
Alexander BublikATP #20Elo 2065hard 2035

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: Medvedev66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 66%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Medvedev won 9 of the last 10 matches; Medvedev won 4 of 5 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: Medvedev61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Medvedev won the first set in 16 of the last 20 matches, Bublik lost the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

  • Total Games: Over 21.561%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 57% → with the players' profiles 61%

    Bublik: 6 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: Yes49%

Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 49%

Bublik: 6 matches in a row with a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Daniil Medvedev66%
Alexander Bublik34%

Elo: D. Medvedev 65% · A. Bublik 36%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Medvedev42%
2:1 D. Medvedev23%
2:1 A. Bublik15%
2:0 A. Bublik20%

First set

Daniil Medvedev62%
Alexander Bublik39%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.5 · 54%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.568%32%60%
21.561%39%54%
22.555%45%46%
23.546%54%40%
24.541%60%38%
25.539%61%35%
26.535%65%30%

Sample: 5,372 matches

Games handicap

D. Medvedev −2.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes49%

tour average 39%

Match stats

Daniil MedvedevAlexander Bublik
9Aces3
1Double faults0
65%First serves in81%
100%First-serve points won65%
63%Second-serve points won75%
1/2Break points converted0/0
5/5Service games held3/4
87%Service points won67%
33%Return points won13%
27Total points won17

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. MedvedevTourA. Bublik
Service points won66%62%68%
Return points won41%38%34%
Service games held84%76%87%
Breaks of serve28%24%16%
Aces per service game0.700.88
Double faults per game0.330.26
Sets with a tie-break15%26%
Tie-breaks won9/2623/39
Wins in straight sets71%62%
Matches in the sample6756

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Daniil Medvedev

Alexander Bublik

Elo over the last year

Daniil MedvedevAlexander Bublik

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. MedvedevA. Bublik
Hard court38–1178%21–1166%
Clay5–456%8–850%
Grass6–367%5–363%

Head to head

D. Medvedev 4–1 A. Bublik

  • 22/06/25Winner: A. Bublik3:6 6:7
  • 30/04/24Winner: D. Medvedev7:6 6:4
  • 01/03/23Winner: D. Medvedev6:4 6:2
  • 10/08/21Winner: D. Medvedev4:6 6:3 6:4
  • 31/05/21Winner: D. Medvedev6:3 6:3 7:5

Road through the tournament

Daniil Medvedev

Alexander Bublik

See also