Medvedev vs Shimabukuro: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 6h 37mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elo: D. Medvedev 90% · S. Shimabukuro 10%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 19.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 20.4
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | 78% | 22% | 90% |
| 17.5 | 68% | 32% | 83% |
| 18.5 | 56% | 44% | 75% |
| 19.5 | 46% | 54% | 66% |
| 20.5 | 38% | 62% | 58% |
| 21.5 | 31% | 69% | 53% |
| 22.5 | 25% | 75% | 45% |
Sample: 1,239 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 37%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| D. Medvedev | Tour | S. Shimabukuro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 65% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 84% | 76% | 78% |
| Breaks of serve | 28% | 24% | 25% |
| Aces per service game | 0.71 | 0.53 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.33 | 0.25 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 16% | 17% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 9/28 | 17/28 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 68% | |
| Matches in the sample | 67 | 70 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Daniil Medvedev
- 17/10/26LRafael Jodar#11ATP Shanghai · SF3:6 4:6
- 16/10/26WTommy Paul#15ATP Shanghai · QF6:3 1:6 6:3
- 14/10/26WStefanos Tsitsipas#39ATP Shanghai · R166:4 7:5
- 12/10/26WDalibor Svrcina#119ATP Shanghai · R326:2 6:3
- 10/10/26WJan-Lennard Struff#58ATP Shanghai · R644:6 6:4 6:3
- 04/10/26WFrancisco Cerúndolo#21ATP Beijing · QF7:6 6:3
- 03/10/26WJan-Lennard Struff#58ATP Beijing · R166:4 6:3
- 02/10/26WPablo Carreno Busta#74ATP Beijing · R326:4 6:2
- 29/09/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP Hangzhou · F7:5 6:4
- 28/09/26WRoman Safiullin#70ATP Hangzhou · SF7:5 6:4
Sho Shimabukuro
- 20/10/26WRoman Safiullin#70ATP Almaty · R326:7 6:4 6:4
- 07/10/26LMiomir Kecmanovic#57ATP Shanghai · R1282:6 4:6
- 01/10/26LDenis Shapovalov#47ATP Tokyo · R325:7 1:6
- 24/09/26LHugo Gaston#93ATP Hangzhou · R324:6 4:6
- 30/08/26LArthur Rinderknech#61ATP US Open · R1287:6 2:6 6:7 2:6
- 23/08/26LMiomir Kecmanovic#57ATP Winston Salem · R644:6 3:6
- 14/08/26LHubert Hurkacz#30ATP Cincinnati · R1282:6 4:6
- 13/08/26LJeffrey John Wolf#216ATP Cincinnati · Q23:6 6:3 5:7
- 12/08/26WHugo Dellien#118ATP Cincinnati · Q16:3 6:1
- 03/08/26LMarin Cilic#84ATP Montreal · R1286:7 1:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| D. Medvedev | S. Shimabukuro | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 37–1276% | 32–2358% |
| Clay | 5–456% | 1–325% |
| Grass | 6–367% | 7–464% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Daniil Medvedev
First match in this tournament.
Sho Shimabukuro
- 20/10/26WRoman Safiullin#70ATP Almaty · R326:7 6:4 6:4