ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying
Medvedev vs Paul: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 1hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Daniil Medvedev65%
Tommy Paul35%
Elo: D. Medvedev 58% · T. Paul 42%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 D. Medvedev41%
2:1 D. Medvedev22%
2:1 T. Paul16%
2:0 T. Paul21%
First set
Daniil Medvedev60%
Tommy Paul40%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 48%market (no margin): 52%
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.2
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 73% | 27% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 66% | 35% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 59% | 41% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 52% | 48% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 44% | 56% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 41% | 59% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 35% |
Sample: 5,472 matches
Games handicap
Daniil Medvedev −2.552%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes45%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| D. Medvedev | Tour | T. Paul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 67% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 85% | 76% | 85% |
| Breaks of serve | 27% | 24% | 24% |
| Aces per service game | 0.71 | 0.51 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.33 | 0.15 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 18% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/30 | 15/28 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 56% | |
| Matches in the sample | 69 | 59 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Daniil Medvedev
- 14/10/26WStefanos Tsitsipas#43ATP Shanghai · R166:4 7:5
- 12/10/26WDalibor Svrcina#126ATP Shanghai · R326:2 6:3
- 10/10/26WJan-Lennard Struff#59ATP Shanghai · R644:6 6:4 6:3
- 04/10/26WFrancisco Cerúndolo#20ATP Beijing · QF7:6 6:3
- 03/10/26WJan-Lennard Struff#59ATP Beijing · R166:4 6:3
- 02/10/26WPablo Carreno Busta#65ATP Beijing · R326:4 6:2
- 29/09/26WAndrey Rublev#23ATP Hangzhou · F7:5 6:4
- 28/09/26WRoman Safiullin#79ATP Hangzhou · SF7:5 6:4
- 27/09/26WColeman Wong#101ATP Hangzhou · QF6:3 6:7 6:3
- 26/09/26WValentin Royer#105ATP Hangzhou · R167:6 6:3
Tommy Paul
- 14/10/26WZizou Bergs#39ATP Shanghai · R167:6 6:4
- 12/10/26WValentin Vacherot#14ATP Shanghai · R326:4 6:2
- 10/10/26WAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#52ATP Shanghai · R646:2 6:2
- 30/09/26LAlejandro Tabilo#30ATP Tokyo · R321:6 2:6
- 06/09/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP US Open · R164:6 3:6 4:6
- 04/09/26WAlexander Bublik#22ATP US Open · R326:4 3:6 6:7 6:1 6:3
- 02/09/26WDino Prizmic#97ATP US Open · R646:2 6:3 5:7 6:4
- 30/08/26WColeman Wong#101ATP US Open · R1286:7 6:1 6:3 6:3
- 20/08/26LFlavio Cobolli#7ATP Cincinnati · QF6:2 3:6 4:6
- 19/08/26WAlexander Zverev#2ATP Cincinnati · R164:6 7:6 6:4
Elo over the last year
Daniil MedvedevTommy Paul
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| D. Medvedev | T. Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 40–1178% | 24–1267% |
| Clay | 5–456% | 11–473% |
| Grass | 6–367% | 6–275% |
Head to head
D. Medvedev 4–1 T. Paul
- 12/03/25Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:4 6:0
- 14/05/24Winner: Tommy Paul1:6 4:6
- 17/03/24Winner: Daniil Medvedev1:6 7:6 6:2
- 29/09/23Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:2 6:1
- 02/06/21Winner: Daniil Medvedev3:6 6:1 6:4 6:3
Road through the tournament
Daniil Medvedev
- 10/10/26WJan-Lennard Struff#59ATP Shanghai · R644:6 6:4 6:3
- 12/10/26WDalibor Svrcina#126ATP Shanghai · R326:2 6:3
- 14/10/26WStefanos Tsitsipas#43ATP Shanghai · R166:4 7:5
Tommy Paul
- 10/10/26WAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#52ATP Shanghai · R646:2 6:2
- 12/10/26WValentin Vacherot#14ATP Shanghai · R326:4 6:2
- 14/10/26WZizou Bergs#39ATP Shanghai · R167:6 6:4