ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Paul vs Bergs: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 8h 21mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Tommy Paul67%
Zizou Bergs33%
Elo: T. Paul 71% · Z. Bergs 29%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 T. Paul43%
2:1 T. Paul23%
2:1 Z. Bergs14%
2:0 Z. Bergs20%
First set
Tommy Paul62%
Zizou Bergs38%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 49%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 73% | 27% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 65% | 35% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 58% | 42% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 51% | 49% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 43% | 57% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 37% | 63% | 34% |
Sample: 5,143 matches
Games handicap
Tommy Paul −3.546%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes46%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| T. Paul | Tour | Z. Bergs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 84% | 76% | 80% |
| Breaks of serve | 24% | 24% | 23% |
| Aces per service game | 0.51 | 0.56 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.15 | 0.36 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 17% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 14/27 | 7/22 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 52% | |
| Matches in the sample | 58 | 49 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Tommy Paul
- 12/10/26WValentin Vacherot#14ATP Shanghai · R326:4 6:2
- 10/10/26WAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#52ATP Shanghai · R646:2 6:2
- 30/09/26LAlejandro Tabilo#30ATP Tokyo · R321:6 2:6
- 06/09/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP US Open · R164:6 3:6 4:6
- 04/09/26WAlexander Bublik#22ATP US Open · R326:4 3:6 6:7 6:1 6:3
- 02/09/26WDino Prizmic#97ATP US Open · R646:2 6:3 5:7 6:4
- 30/08/26WColeman Wong#101ATP US Open · R1286:7 6:1 6:3 6:3
- 20/08/26LFlavio Cobolli#7ATP Cincinnati · QF6:2 3:6 4:6
- 19/08/26WAlexander Zverev#2ATP Cincinnati · R164:6 7:6 6:4
- 18/08/26WAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#52ATP Cincinnati · R323:6 6:3 6:4
Zizou Bergs
- 12/10/26WCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP Shanghai · R327:5 7:6
- 10/10/26WIgnacio Buse#36ATP Shanghai · R646:0 6:3
- 08/10/26WVit Kopriva#68ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 6:1
- 30/09/26LJiří Lehečka#16ATP Tokyo · R323:6 7:6 3:6
- 05/09/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#41ATP US Open · R326:3 6:7 6:4 6:7 3:6
- 03/09/26WJesper De Jong#95ATP US Open · R647:5 1:6 6:2 7:6
- 01/09/26WCarlos Taberner#361ATP US Open · R1286:3 3:6 6:2 6:2
- 21/08/26LStefanos Sakellaridis#135Challenger Quebec City · QF6:7 6:4 4:6
- 20/08/26WAndrea Pellegrino#145Challenger Quebec City · R166:3 6:2
- 16/08/26LDaniel Merida#44ATP Cincinnati · R643:6 2:6
Elo over the last year
Tommy PaulZizou Bergs
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| T. Paul | Z. Bergs | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 23–1266% | 11–1444% |
| Clay | 11–473% | 7–750% |
| Grass | 6–275% | 7–370% |
Head to head
T. Paul 1–0 Z. Bergs
- 07/03/26Winner: Tommy Paul6:1 6:2
Road through the tournament
Tommy Paul
- 10/10/26WAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#52ATP Shanghai · R646:2 6:2
- 12/10/26WValentin Vacherot#14ATP Shanghai · R326:4 6:2
Zizou Bergs
- 08/10/26WVit Kopriva#68ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 6:1
- 10/10/26WIgnacio Buse#36ATP Shanghai · R646:0 6:3
- 12/10/26WCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP Shanghai · R327:5 7:6