Bergs vs Alcaraz 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 64% → with the players' profiles 61%
Under 20.5 games in recent matches: Bergs 11 of 20, Alcaraz 11 of 20 (tour average 42%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: Z. Bergs 6% · C. Alcaraz 94%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 19.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 20.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | 79% | 21% | 91% |
| 17.5 | 69% | 31% | 83% |
| 18.5 | 58% | 42% | 75% |
| 19.5 | 47% | 53% | 67% |
| 20.5 | 39% | 61% | 58% |
| 21.5 | 32% | 68% | 53% |
| 22.5 | 25% | 75% | 45% |
Sample: 1,218 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 37%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:0
- Total games Under 19.5out · 25 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Zizou Bergs | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Aces | 5 |
| 1 | Double faults | 2 |
| 63% | First serves in | 67% |
| 79% | First-serve points won | 66% |
| 50% | Second-serve points won | 54% |
| 3/4 | Break points converted | 2/2 |
| 10/12 | Service games held | 9/12 |
| 68% | Service points won | 62% |
| 38% | Return points won | 32% |
| 81 | Total points won | 73 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| Z. Bergs | Tour | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 67% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 80% | 76% | 87% |
| Breaks of serve | 23% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.55 | 0.37 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.37 | 0.19 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 20% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 6/21 | 13/22 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 72% | |
| Matches in the sample | 48 | 42 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Zizou Bergs
- 10/10/26WIgnacio Buse#36ATP Shanghai · R646:0 6:3
- 08/10/26WVit Kopriva#68ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 6:1
- 30/09/26LJiří Lehečka#16ATP Tokyo · R323:6 7:6 3:6
- 05/09/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#41ATP US Open · R326:3 6:7 6:4 6:7 3:6
- 03/09/26WJesper De Jong#95ATP US Open · R647:5 1:6 6:2 7:6
- 01/09/26WCarlos Taberner#361ATP US Open · R1286:3 3:6 6:2 6:2
- 21/08/26LStefanos Sakellaridis#135Challenger Quebec City · QF6:7 6:4 4:6
- 20/08/26WAndrea Pellegrino#145Challenger Quebec City · R166:3 6:2
- 16/08/26LDaniel Merida#44ATP Cincinnati · R643:6 2:6
- 07/08/26LBen Shelton#4ATP Montreal · R323:6 2:6
Carlos Alcaraz
- 10/10/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#55ATP Shanghai · R646:3 6:3
- 06/10/26WJiří Lehečka#16ATP Tokyo · F7:6 6:4
- 05/10/26WJaume Munar#49ATP Tokyo · SF5:7 6:3 6:1
- 04/10/26WDenis Shapovalov#42ATP Tokyo · QF7:6 2:1
- 03/10/26WMatteo Arnaldi#38ATP Tokyo · R167:6 6:1
- 01/10/26WAlex Michelsen#35ATP Tokyo · R327:6 4:6 6:1
- 09/09/26LBen Shelton#4ATP US Open · QF7:6 1:6 3:6 6:1 6:7
- 06/09/26WTommy Paul#18ATP US Open · R166:4 6:3 6:4
- 04/09/26WYibing Wu#113ATP US Open · R326:3 6:4 6:1
- 03/09/26WJaime Faria#60ATP US Open · R644:6 6:0 6:3 6:2
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| Z. Bergs | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 10–1442% | 31–586% |
| Clay | 7–750% | 5–183% |
| Grass | 7–370% | 0–0 |
Head to head
Z. Bergs 0–1 C. Alcaraz
- 27/09/25Winner: Carlos Alcaraz4:6 3:6
Road through the tournament
Zizou Bergs
- 08/10/26WVit Kopriva#68ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 6:1
- 10/10/26WIgnacio Buse#36ATP Shanghai · R646:0 6:3
Carlos Alcaraz
- 10/10/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#55ATP Shanghai · R646:3 6:3