ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Semifinalhardbest of three sets

Jodar vs Medvedev 2:0: result and our tips

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Rafael JodarATP #11Elo 2174hard 2114
2:0final6:3 6:4
Daniil MedvedevATP #5Elo 2150hard 2143

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: MedvedevLost65%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 65%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Medvedev: 11 wins in a row; Medvedev won 10 of the last 10 matches

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: MedvedevLost61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Jodar lost the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches, Medvedev won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

  • Total Games: Over 21.5Lost57%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Jodar 14 of 20, Medvedev 13 of 20 (tour average 54%); Jodar: 4 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 26.5Lost33%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Jodar: 4 matches in a row over 26.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Rafael Jodar36%
Daniil Medvedev65%

Elo: R. Jodar 46% · D. Medvedev 54%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 R. Jodar21%
2:1 R. Jodar16%
2:1 D. Medvedev22%
2:0 D. Medvedev41%

First set

Rafael Jodar40%
Daniil Medvedev60%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.571%29%68%
20.563%37%60%
21.558%42%54%
22.549%51%46%
23.542%58%39%
24.540%60%38%
25.537%63%34%

Sample: 5,497 matches

Games handicap

Daniil Medvedev −2.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes41%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 19 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Rafael JodarDaniil Medvedev
6Aces3
2Double faults4
69%First serves in56%
66%First-serve points won64%
46%Second-serve points won41%
4/7Break points converted2/6
8/10Service games held5/9
60%Service points won54%
46%Return points won41%
73Total points won61

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

R. JodarTourD. Medvedev
Service points won65%62%66%
Return points won41%38%40%
Service games held81%76%84%
Breaks of serve30%24%28%
Aces per service game0.380.71
Double faults per game0.170.33
Sets with a tie-break12%17%
Tie-breaks won12/259/29
Wins in straight sets61%66%
Matches in the sample8368

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Rafael Jodar

Daniil Medvedev

Elo over the last year

Rafael JodarDaniil Medvedev

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

R. JodarD. Medvedev
Hard court43–1475%39–1178%
Clay19–483%5–456%
Grass2–167%6–367%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Rafael Jodar

Daniil Medvedev

See also