ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying
Jodar vs Ruud: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 1hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Rafael Jodar56%
Casper Ruud44%
Elo: R. Jodar 59% · C. Ruud 41%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 R. Jodar35%
2:1 R. Jodar21%
2:1 C. Ruud19%
2:0 C. Ruud25%
First set
Rafael Jodar55%
Casper Ruud46%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 55%market (no margin): 51%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 68% | 32% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 62% | 38% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 55% | 45% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 47% | 53% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 44% | 56% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 41% | 59% | 35% |
| 26.5 | 36% | 64% | 30% |
Sample: 5,649 matches
Games handicap
Rafael Jodar −1.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes46%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| R. Jodar | Tour | C. Ruud | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 65% | 62% | 67% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 82% | 76% | 86% |
| Breaks of serve | 30% | 24% | 22% |
| Aces per service game | 0.38 | 0.51 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.17 | 0.19 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 20% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 12/25 | 12/25 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 70% | |
| Matches in the sample | 83 | 51 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Rafael Jodar
- 14/10/26WBotic Van de Zandschulp#41ATP Shanghai · R166:7 6:4 6:2
- 12/10/26WJiří Lehečka#16ATP Shanghai · R324:6 7:6 6:4
- 10/10/26WThiago Agustin Tirante#54ATP Shanghai · R644:6 6:2 6:3
- 01/10/26LAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#52ATP Tokyo · R321:6 3:6
- 02/09/26LYunchaokete Bu#93ATP US Open · R1282:6 1:6 1:6
- 19/08/26LFlavio Cobolli#7ATP Cincinnati · R166:4 6:7 3:6
- 17/08/26WAlejandro Tabilo#30ATP Cincinnati · R326:2 6:1
- 15/08/26WDenis Shapovalov#42ATP Cincinnati · R647:5 4:6 7:5
- 12/08/26LBrandon Nakashima#19ATP Montreal · SF6:7 4:6
- 11/08/26WArthur Fils#11ATP Montreal · QF7:6 6:3
Casper Ruud
- 14/10/26WFelix Auger-Aliassime#5ATP Shanghai · R165:2
- 12/10/26WLearner Tien#17ATP Shanghai · R326:4 7:6
- 10/10/26WYunchaokete Bu#93ATP Shanghai · R646:1 7:6
- 01/10/26LLuciano Darderi#21ATP Tokyo · R326:7 3:6
- 16/08/26LChristopher O'Connell#117ATP Cincinnati · R645:7 2:1
- 07/08/26LJoao Fonseca#29ATP Montreal · R326:7 3:6
- 05/08/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#55ATP Montreal · R646:1 6:2
- 17/07/26LJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#55ATP Gstaad · QF6:3 5:7 2:6
- 16/07/26WJaime Faria#60ATP Gstaad · R166:7 6:4 6:2
- 29/06/26LHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Wimbledon · R1284:6 2:6 6:7
Elo over the last year
Rafael JodarCasper Ruud
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| R. Jodar | C. Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 43–1475% | 16–1159% |
| Clay | 19–483% | 17–674% |
| Grass | 2–167% | 0–10% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Rafael Jodar
- 10/10/26WThiago Agustin Tirante#54ATP Shanghai · R644:6 6:2 6:3
- 12/10/26WJiří Lehečka#16ATP Shanghai · R324:6 7:6 6:4
- 14/10/26WBotic Van de Zandschulp#41ATP Shanghai · R166:7 6:4 6:2
Casper Ruud
- 10/10/26WYunchaokete Bu#93ATP Shanghai · R646:1 7:6
- 12/10/26WLearner Tien#17ATP Shanghai · R326:4 7:6
- 14/10/26WFelix Auger-Aliassime#5ATP Shanghai · R165:2