ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Ruud vs Auger-Aliassime: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 30mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Casper Ruud42%
Felix Auger-Aliassime58%
Elo: C. Ruud 41% · F. Auger-Aliassime 59%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 C. Ruud24%
2:1 C. Ruud19%
2:1 F. Auger-Aliassime21%
2:0 F. Auger-Aliassime36%
First set
Casper Ruud45%
Felix Auger-Aliassime55%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 51%market (no margin): 51%
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 25.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 72% | 28% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 64% | 36% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 60% | 41% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 51% | 49% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 45% | 55% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 43% | 57% | 35% |
| 26.5 | 39% | 61% | 30% |
Sample: 5,773 matches
Games handicap
Felix Auger-Aliassime −1.552%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes53%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| C. Ruud | Tour | F. Auger-Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 67% | 62% | 69% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 36% |
| Service games held | 86% | 76% | 88% |
| Breaks of serve | 22% | 24% | 19% |
| Aces per service game | 0.51 | 0.83 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.19 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 20% | 26% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 12/25 | 29/45 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 60% | |
| Matches in the sample | 50 | 67 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Casper Ruud
- 12/10/26WLearner Tien#17ATP Shanghai · R326:4 7:6
- 10/10/26WYunchaokete Bu#93ATP Shanghai · R646:1 7:6
- 01/10/26LLuciano Darderi#21ATP Tokyo · R326:7 3:6
- 16/08/26LChristopher O'Connell#117ATP Cincinnati · R645:7 2:1
- 07/08/26LJoao Fonseca#29ATP Montreal · R326:7 3:6
- 05/08/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#55ATP Montreal · R646:1 6:2
- 17/07/26LJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#55ATP Gstaad · QF6:3 5:7 2:6
- 16/07/26WJaime Faria#60ATP Gstaad · R166:7 6:4 6:2
- 29/06/26LHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Wimbledon · R1284:6 2:6 6:7
- 31/05/26LJoao Fonseca#29ATP French Open · R165:7 6:7 7:5 2:6
Felix Auger-Aliassime
- 12/10/26WPablo Carreno Busta#65ATP Shanghai · R326:3 4:6 6:1
- 10/10/26WCamilo Ugo Carabelli#77ATP Shanghai · R644:6 7:6 7:5
- 30/09/26LKaren Khachanov#27ATP Beijing · R323:6 3:6
- 03/09/26LKaren Khachanov#27ATP US Open · R647:6 3:6 2:6 2:6
- 31/08/26WRinky Hijikata#85ATP US Open · R1287:5 4:6 6:3 7:5
- 20/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#10ATP Cincinnati · R163:6 4:6
- 18/08/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#55ATP Cincinnati · R327:5 6:1
- 16/08/26WStefanos Tsitsipas#43ATP Cincinnati · R646:3 7:5
- 07/07/26LNovak Djokovic#8ATP Wimbledon · QF6:7 6:3 3:6 7:6 6:7
- 05/07/26WAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#26ATP Wimbledon · R166:7 7:6 6:3 6:7 6:1
Elo over the last year
Casper RuudFelix Auger-Aliassime
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| C. Ruud | F. Auger-Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 15–1158% | 32–1273% |
| Clay | 17–674% | 8–562% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 7–370% |
Head to head
C. Ruud 3–4 F. Auger-Aliassime
- 09/04/26Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime5:7 2:2
- 16/08/24Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime3:6 1:6
- 30/04/24Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime4:6 5:7
- 13/11/22Winner: Casper Ruud7:6 6:4
- 12/08/22Winner: Casper Ruud6:1 6:2
- 04/05/21Winner: Casper Ruud6:1 6:4
- 21/03/19Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime6:3 1:6 2:6
Road through the tournament
Casper Ruud
- 10/10/26WYunchaokete Bu#93ATP Shanghai · R646:1 7:6
- 12/10/26WLearner Tien#17ATP Shanghai · R326:4 7:6
Felix Auger-Aliassime
- 10/10/26WCamilo Ugo Carabelli#77ATP Shanghai · R644:6 7:6 7:5
- 12/10/26WPablo Carreno Busta#65ATP Shanghai · R326:3 4:6 6:1