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ATP Almaty250Finalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Medvedev vs Basilashvili 2:1: result and our tips

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Daniil MedvedevATP #5Elo 2147hard 2138
2:1final6:7(6) 6:1 6:3
Nikoloz BasilashviliATP #95Elo 1908hard 1888

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoLost60%

Where the number comes from: market alone 64% → with the players' profiles 60%

Medvedev: 7 matches in a row without a tie-break

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 25.5Lost67%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Medvedev: 6 matches in a row under 25.5 games

  • Match Winner: MedvedevWon79%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 79%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Medvedev won 9 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost42%

Where the number comes from: market alone 45% → with the players' profiles 42%

Medvedev: 3 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Daniil Medvedev80%
Nikoloz Basilashvili20%

Elo: D. Medvedev 81% · N. Basilashvili 19%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Medvedev58%
2:1 D. Medvedev21%
2:1 N. Basilashvili10%
2:0 N. Basilashvili11%

First set

Daniil Medvedev74%
Nikoloz Basilashvili26%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no69%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%76%
19.566%34%67%
20.558%43%59%
21.551%50%54%
22.543%57%45%
23.537%63%39%
24.535%66%38%

Sample: 2,954 matches

Games handicap

D. Medvedev −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 29 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Daniil MedvedevNikoloz Basilashvili
22Aces3
4Double faults3
78%First serves in58%
82%First-serve points won76%
53%Second-serve points won49%
4/10Break points converted0/2
14/14Service games held10/14
76%Service points won64%
36%Return points won24%
96Total points won77

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. MedvedevTourN. Basilashvili
Service points won66%62%64%
Return points won41%38%37%
Service games held84%76%80%
Breaks of serve28%24%22%
Aces per service game0.710.63
Double faults per game0.330.39
Sets with a tie-break15%20%
Tie-breaks won9/2612/28
Wins in straight sets70%69%
Matches in the sample6862

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Daniil Medvedev

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Elo over the last year

Daniil MedvedevNikoloz Basilashvili

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. MedvedevN. Basilashvili
Hard court39–1178%18–1555%
Clay5–456%12–1250%
Grass6–367%2–340%

Head to head

D. Medvedev 1–0 N. Basilashvili

  • 26/10/22Winner: D. Medvedev6:2 6:2

Road through the tournament

Daniil Medvedev

Nikoloz Basilashvili

See also