ATP Almaty250Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Diaz Acosta vs Basilashvili 0:2: result and our tips

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Facundo Diaz AcostaATP #71Elo 1920hard 1767
0:2final2:6 4:6
Nikoloz BasilashviliATP #128Elo 1872hard 1852

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: BasilashviliWon69%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 69%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Basilashvili won 9 of the last 10 matches; Basilashvili: 5 wins in a row

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 19.5Lost70%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Basilashvili: 9 matches in a row over 19.5 games

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesLost41%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Diaz Acosta: 3 matches in a row with a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Facundo Diaz Acosta32%
Nikoloz Basilashvili68%

Elo: F. Diaz Acosta 38% · N. Basilashvili 62%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Diaz Acosta19%
2:1 F. Diaz Acosta14%
2:1 N. Basilashvili23%
2:0 N. Basilashvili45%

First set

Facundo Diaz Acosta37%
Nikoloz Basilashvili64%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 52%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.570%30%68%
20.562%38%60%
21.556%44%54%
22.548%52%46%
23.541%60%39%
24.539%61%38%
25.535%65%35%

Sample: 5,031 matches

Games handicap

Nikoloz Basilashvili −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes41%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Facundo Diaz AcostaNikoloz Basilashvili
6Aces14
0Double faults3
63%First serves in60%
61%First-serve points won89%
39%Second-serve points won56%
1/2Break points converted4/4
5/9Service games held8/9
53%Service points won76%
24%Return points won47%
37Total points won57

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. Diaz AcostaTourN. Basilashvili
Service points won63%62%64%
Return points won42%38%37%
Service games held77%76%79%
Breaks of serve33%24%22%
Aces per service game0.250.62
Double faults per game0.180.39
Sets with a tie-break17%20%
Tie-breaks won16/3212/27
Wins in straight sets60%69%
Matches in the sample7759

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Elo over the last year

Facundo Diaz AcostaNikoloz Basilashvili

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. Diaz AcostaN. Basilashvili
Hard court4–640%15–1550%
Clay49–1774%12–1250%
Grass0–10%2–340%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Nikoloz Basilashvili