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ATP Almaty250Semifinalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Basilashvili vs Tsitsipas 2:1: result and our tips

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Nikoloz BasilashviliATP #95Elo 1893hard 1872
2:1final6:4 6:7(5) 6:3
Stefanos TsitsipasATP #33Elo 2059hard 2027

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: TsitsipasLost70%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 70%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Tsitsipas won 8 of the last 10 matches

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost64%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Basilashvili: 5 matches in a row without a deciding set

  • Total Games: Under 24.5Lost60%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 62% → with the players' profiles 60%

    Basilashvili: 5 matches in a row under 24.5 games

Long shot
1st Set Winner: BasilashviliWon34%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Basilashvili: 5 matches in a row winning the first set; Basilashvili won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches, Tsitsipas lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Nikoloz Basilashvili30%
Stefanos Tsitsipas70%

Elo: N. Basilashvili 29% · S. Tsitsipas 71%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 N. Basilashvili17%
2:1 N. Basilashvili13%
2:1 S. Tsitsipas23%
2:0 S. Tsitsipas47%

First set

Nikoloz Basilashvili34%
Stefanos Tsitsipas66%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 46%market (no margin): 50%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%68%
20.568%32%60%
21.560%40%54%
22.554%46%46%
23.546%54%39%
24.540%60%38%
25.538%62%35%

Sample: 4,696 matches

Games handicap

S. Tsitsipas −3.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes50%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 23.0out · 32 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Nikoloz BasilashviliStefanos Tsitsipas
7Aces11
4Double faults0
53%First serves in67%
92%First-serve points won76%
57%Second-serve points won49%
2/8Break points converted0/3
16/16Service games held13/15
75%Service points won67%
33%Return points won25%
103Total points won89

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

N. BasilashviliTourS. Tsitsipas
Service points won64%62%68%
Return points won37%38%35%
Service games held79%76%87%
Breaks of serve22%24%18%
Aces per service game0.640.61
Double faults per game0.390.19
Sets with a tie-break20%24%
Tie-breaks won12/2713/33
Wins in straight sets71%61%
Matches in the sample6155

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Elo over the last year

Nikoloz BasilashviliStefanos Tsitsipas

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

N. BasilashviliS. Tsitsipas
Hard court17–1553%22–1461%
Clay12–1250%10–663%
Grass2–340%1–233%

Head to head

N. Basilashvili 1–3 S. Tsitsipas

  • 05/01/22Winner: S. Tsitsipas1:4
  • 15/10/21Winner: N. Basilashvili6:4 2:6 6:4
  • 03/10/19Winner: S. Tsitsipas6:4 3:6 2:6
  • 18/01/19Winner: S. Tsitsipas3:6 6:3 6:7 4:6

Road through the tournament

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Stefanos Tsitsipas

See also