ATP Almaty250Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying
Basilashvili vs Mannarino: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 3hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Nikoloz Basilashvili58%
Adrian Mannarino42%
Elo: N. Basilashvili 53% · A. Mannarino 47%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 N. Basilashvili36%
2:1 N. Basilashvili21%
2:1 A. Mannarino19%
2:0 A. Mannarino24%
First set
Nikoloz Basilashvili55%
Adrian Mannarino45%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 55%market (no margin): 52%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 69% | 31% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 62% | 38% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 55% | 45% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 48% | 52% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 44% | 56% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 41% | 59% | 35% |
| 26.5 | 36% | 64% | 30% |
Sample: 5,846 matches
Games handicap
Nikoloz Basilashvili −1.552%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes47%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| N. Basilashvili | Tour | A. Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 79% | 76% | 75% |
| Breaks of serve | 22% | 24% | 18% |
| Aces per service game | 0.63 | 0.39 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.39 | 0.17 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 20% | 18% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 12/27 | 13/25 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 70% | 44% | |
| Matches in the sample | 60 | 57 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Nikoloz Basilashvili
- 21/10/26WFacundo Diaz Acosta#71ATP Almaty · R166:2 6:4
- 19/10/26WMarin Cilic#84ATP Almaty · R326:2 7:5
- 18/10/26WAdam Walton#97ATP Almaty · Q26:4 7:6
- 17/10/26WTaro Daniel#179ATP Almaty · Q16:2 7:5
- 07/10/26LAdrian Mannarino#79ATP Shanghai · R1283:6 2:2
- 06/10/26WLiam Draxl#197ATP Shanghai · Q25:7 7:5 6:4
- 05/10/26WAndre Ilagan#203ATP Shanghai · Q16:3 6:7 7:5
- 28/09/26LAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#13ATP Chengdu · SF6:4 4:6 3:6
- 27/09/26WJenson Brooksby#99ATP Chengdu · QF6:4 7:6
- 25/09/26WBotic Van de Zandschulp#38ATP Chengdu · R166:4 7:5
Adrian Mannarino
- 21/10/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP Almaty · R166:4 3:6 6:3
- 19/10/26WAleksandar Vukic#116ATP Almaty · R327:6 4:6 6:3
- 11/10/26LKaren Khachanov#25ATP Shanghai · R322:6 4:6
- 09/10/26WFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Shanghai · R646:1 4:6 6:3
- 07/10/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#128ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 2:2
- 29/09/26LPablo Carreno Busta#74ATP Beijing · Q23:6 4:6
- 28/09/26WMiomir Kecmanovic#57ATP Beijing · Q17:6 3:6 7:6
- 27/09/26LDenis Shapovalov#47ATP Chengdu · QF7:6 3:6 2:6
- 25/09/26WAlejandro Tabilo#31ATP Chengdu · R166:4 6:4
- 24/09/26WJuncheng Shang#248ATP Chengdu · R327:6 6:2
Elo over the last year
Nikoloz BasilashviliAdrian Mannarino
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| N. Basilashvili | A. Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 16–1552% | 17–2145% |
| Clay | 12–1250% | 0–80% |
| Grass | 2–340% | 6–555% |
Head to head
N. Basilashvili 0–3 A. Mannarino
- 07/10/26Winner: Adrian Mannarino3:6 2:2
- 11/09/24Winner: Adrian Mannarino6:7 6:3 3:6
- 01/11/21Winner: Adrian Mannarino2:6 4:6
Road through the tournament
Nikoloz Basilashvili
- 17/10/26WTaro Daniel#179ATP Almaty · Q16:2 7:5
- 18/10/26WAdam Walton#97ATP Almaty · Q26:4 7:6
- 19/10/26WMarin Cilic#84ATP Almaty · R326:2 7:5
- 21/10/26WFacundo Diaz Acosta#71ATP Almaty · R166:2 6:4
Adrian Mannarino
- 19/10/26WAleksandar Vukic#116ATP Almaty · R327:6 4:6 6:3
- 21/10/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP Almaty · R166:4 3:6 6:3