Merida vs Medvedev: prediction and tips
·
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
No tie-break in recent matches: Merida 17 of 20, Medvedev 15 of 20 (tour average 62%)
Other tips
- Match Winner: Medvedev75%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 75%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Medvedev won 9 of the last 10 matches
- Total Games: Under 26.570%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Merida: 6 matches in a row under 26.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elo: D. Merida 26% · D. Medvedev 74%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 75% | 25% | 76% |
| 19.5 | 67% | 33% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 59% | 42% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 53% | 48% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 45% | 55% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 61% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 37% | 63% | 38% |
Sample: 3,817 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| D. Merida | Tour | D. Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 77% | 76% | 84% |
| Breaks of serve | 30% | 24% | 28% |
| Aces per service game | 0.29 | 0.72 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.24 | 0.33 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 10% | 16% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/17 | 9/27 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 69% | |
| Matches in the sample | 70 | 69 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Daniel Merida
- 08/10/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Shanghai · R1286:1 3:6 4:6
- 04/09/26LAlex Michelsen#34ATP US Open · R326:7 4:6 3:6
- 02/09/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP US Open · R646:7 6:2 6:4 6:4
- 30/08/26WMarton Fucsovics#143ATP US Open · R1286:4 6:4 6:2
- 18/08/26LTaylor Fritz#13ATP Cincinnati · R323:6 4:6
- 16/08/26WZizou Bergs#39ATP Cincinnati · R646:3 6:2
- 14/08/26WMarin Cilic#96ATP Cincinnati · R1283:6 6:1 6:1
- 11/08/26LLearner Tien#18ATP Montreal · QF3:6 2:6
- 09/08/26WTallon Griekspoor#50ATP Montreal · R166:3 6:1
- 07/08/26WAlex Michelsen#34ATP Montreal · R326:4 6:7 6:1
Daniil Medvedev
- 25/10/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#95ATP Almaty · F6:7 6:1 6:3
- 24/10/26WAlexander Bublik#20ATP Almaty · SF6:3
- 23/10/26WTerence Atmane#90ATP Almaty · QF6:4 6:4
- 22/10/26WSho Shimabukuro#106ATP Almaty · R166:2 6:1
- 17/10/26LRafael Jodar#11ATP Shanghai · SF3:6 4:6
- 16/10/26WTommy Paul#14ATP Shanghai · QF6:3 1:6 6:3
- 14/10/26WStefanos Tsitsipas#33ATP Shanghai · R166:4 7:5
- 12/10/26WDalibor Svrcina#120ATP Shanghai · R326:2 6:3
- 10/10/26WJan-Lennard Struff#47ATP Shanghai · R644:6 6:4 6:3
- 04/10/26WFrancisco Cerúndolo#19ATP Beijing · QF7:6 6:3
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| D. Merida | D. Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 20–1067% | 40–1178% |
| Clay | 26–1170% | 5–456% |
| Grass | 1–233% | 6–367% |
Head to head
D. Merida 0–1 D. Medvedev
- 01/07/26Winner: D. Medvedev6:3 3:6 5:7 2:6