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ATP Vienna500Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Norrie vs Medvedev 1:2: result and our tips

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Cameron NorrieATP #41Elo 1968hard 1936
1:2final6:4 3:6 6:7(1)
Daniil MedvedevATP #5Elo 2157hard 2148

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Set Betting: Medvedev 2-0Lost62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Medvedev won 2-0 in 5 of their 5 head-to-head matches; Norrie lost 0-2 in 6 of the last 20 matches, Medvedev won 2-0 in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 22.5Lost60%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 63% → with the players' profiles 60%

    Under 22.5 games in 5 of their 5 head-to-head matches

  • Tie-break in Match: NoLost64%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 67% → with the players' profiles 64%

    No tie-break in 6 of their 6 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Lost37%

Where the number comes from: market alone 40% → with the players' profiles 37%

Under 19.5 games in 5 of their 5 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Cameron Norrie17%
Daniil Medvedev83%

Elo: C. Norrie 23% · D. Medvedev 77%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Norrie10%
2:1 C. Norrie8%
2:1 D. Medvedev21%
2:0 D. Medvedev61%

First set

Cameron Norrie24%
Daniil Medvedev76%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes29%
no71%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%76%
19.564%36%67%
20.555%45%59%
21.548%52%54%
22.540%60%45%
23.534%66%39%
24.532%68%38%

Sample: 2,500 matches

Games handicap

D. Medvedev −4.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 32 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Cameron NorrieDaniil Medvedev
1Aces12
2Double faults4
68%First serves in69%
69%First-serve points won69%
44%Second-serve points won58%
3/11Break points converted3/6
12/15Service games held13/16
61%Service points won66%
34%Return points won39%
98Total points won110

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. NorrieTourD. Medvedev
Service points won64%62%66%
Return points won37%38%41%
Service games held81%76%84%
Breaks of serve20%24%28%
Aces per service game0.370.72
Double faults per game0.200.32
Sets with a tie-break24%16%
Tie-breaks won15/3110/28
Wins in straight sets48%69%
Matches in the sample4969

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Cameron Norrie

Daniil Medvedev

Elo over the last year

Cameron NorrieDaniil Medvedev

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. NorrieD. Medvedev
Hard court20–1656%40–1178%
Clay5–645%5–456%
Grass0–20%6–367%

Head to head

C. Norrie 1–5 D. Medvedev

  • 26/09/25Winner: D. Medvedev3:6 4:6
  • 27/05/25Winner: C. Norrie7:5 6:3 4:6 1:6 7:5
  • 09/05/25Winner: D. Medvedev4:6 2:6
  • 25/03/24Winner: D. Medvedev5:7 1:6
  • 07/08/22Winner: D. Medvedev5:7 0:6
  • 08/10/19Winner: D. Medvedev3:6 1:6

Road through the tournament

Cameron Norrie

Daniil Medvedev

See also