Skip to content
ATP Vienna500Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Paul vs Alcaraz 0:2: result and our tips

·

Tommy PaulATP #14Elo 2132hard 2086
0:2final4:6 6:7(2)
Carlos AlcarazATP #3Elo 2399hard 2341

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: AlcarazWon72%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Alcaraz won the first set in 5 of their 6 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Match Winner: AlcarazWon78%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 78%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Alcaraz won 9 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Games: Over 19.5Won69%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 69%

    Over 19.5 games in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Lost34%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 25.5 games in 3 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Tommy Paul22%
Carlos Alcaraz78%

Elo: T. Paul 19% · C. Alcaraz 81%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Paul12%
2:1 T. Paul12%
2:1 C. Alcaraz22%
2:0 C. Alcaraz55%

First set

Tommy Paul28%
Carlos Alcaraz72%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.577%23%76%
19.569%31%68%
20.560%40%59%
21.553%47%54%
22.546%54%46%
23.540%60%39%
24.537%63%38%

Sample: 3,359 matches

Games handicap

C. Alcaraz −4.545%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes42%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Tommy PaulCarlos Alcaraz
3Aces5
1Double faults0
66%First serves in82%
80%First-serve points won70%
48%Second-serve points won60%
0/5Break points converted1/4
10/11Service games held11/11
69%Service points won68%
32%Return points won31%
73Total points won78

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. PaulTourC. Alcaraz
Service points won66%62%67%
Return points won38%38%41%
Service games held85%76%87%
Breaks of serve25%24%30%
Aces per service game0.520.37
Double faults per game0.150.19
Sets with a tie-break17%22%
Tie-breaks won15/2915/25
Wins in straight sets56%74%
Matches in the sample6544

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Tommy Paul

Carlos Alcaraz

Elo over the last year

Tommy PaulCarlos Alcaraz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. PaulC. Alcaraz
Hard court28–1467%33–587%
Clay11–473%5–183%
Grass6–275%0–0

Head to head

T. Paul 2–6 C. Alcaraz

  • 06/09/26Winner: C. Alcaraz4:6 3:6 4:6
  • 25/01/26Winner: C. Alcaraz6:7 4:6 5:7
  • 03/06/25Winner: C. Alcaraz0:6 1:6 4:6
  • 09/07/24Winner: C. Alcaraz7:5 4:6 2:6 2:6
  • 17/08/23Winner: C. Alcaraz6:7 7:6 3:6
  • 11/08/23Winner: T. Paul6:3 4:6 6:3
  • 28/03/23Winner: C. Alcaraz4:6 4:6
  • 10/08/22Winner: T. Paul6:7 7:6 6:3

Road through the tournament

Tommy Paul

Carlos Alcaraz

See also