ATP Vienna500Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Paul vs Darderi: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 22h 28mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Tommy Paul78%
Luciano Darderi22%
Elo: T. Paul 74% · L. Darderi 26%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 T. Paul55%
2:1 T. Paul22%
2:1 L. Darderi12%
2:0 L. Darderi12%
First set
Tommy Paul72%
Luciano Darderi28%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 52%
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 77% | 23% | 76% |
| 19.5 | 68% | 32% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 60% | 40% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 53% | 47% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 46% | 54% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 40% | 61% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 37% | 64% | 38% |
Sample: 3,334 matches
Games handicap
T. Paul −4.545%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes42%
tour average 38%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| T. Paul | Tour | L. Darderi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 84% | 76% | 79% |
| Breaks of serve | 24% | 24% | 23% |
| Aces per service game | 0.51 | 0.48 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.15 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 17% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 15/29 | 14/27 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 53% | |
| Matches in the sample | 64 | 62 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Tommy Paul
- 27/10/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP Vienna · R327:5 6:2
- 24/10/26LTaylor Fritz#13ATP Lyon · SF3:6 5:7
- 23/10/26WCorentin Moutet#103ATP Lyon · QF6:4 3:6 6:3
- 21/10/26WBenjamin Bonzi#99ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:7 6:3
- 16/10/26LDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Shanghai · QF3:6 6:1 3:6
- 14/10/26WZizou Bergs#39ATP Shanghai · R167:6 6:4
- 12/10/26WValentin Vacherot#31ATP Shanghai · R326:4 6:2
- 10/10/26WAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#56ATP Shanghai · R646:2 6:2
- 30/09/26LAlejandro Tabilo#30ATP Tokyo · R321:6 2:6
- 06/09/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP US Open · R164:6 3:6 4:6
Luciano Darderi
- 26/10/26WMatteo Arnaldi#36ATP Vienna · R327:5 6:2
- 21/10/26LJames Duckworth#68ATP Almaty · R165:7 6:7
- 10/10/26LStefanos Tsitsipas#33ATP Shanghai · R643:6 4:6
- 02/10/26LKyrian Jacquet#79ATP Tokyo · R163:6 6:7
- 01/10/26WCasper Ruud#25ATP Tokyo · R327:6 6:3
- 08/09/26LAlexander Zverev#2ATP US Open · R162:6 2:6 6:7
- 05/09/26WDane Sweeny#112ATP US Open · R326:4 6:3 6:3
- 03/09/26WDalibor Svrcina#120ATP US Open · R646:3 6:7 6:4 6:4
- 31/08/26WHarry Wendelken#212ATP US Open · R1286:2 3:6 6:2 7:5
- 26/08/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Winston Salem · R161:6 0:6
Elo over the last year
Tommy PaulLuciano Darderi
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| T. Paul | L. Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 27–1466% | 13–1350% |
| Clay | 11–473% | 22–1167% |
| Grass | 6–275% | 1–233% |
Head to head
T. Paul 1–1 L. Darderi
- 10/05/26Winner: L. Darderi6:3 3:6 2:6
- 07/08/24Winner: T. Paul6:4 7:6
Road through the tournament
Tommy Paul
- 27/10/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP Vienna · R327:5 6:2
Luciano Darderi
- 26/10/26WMatteo Arnaldi#36ATP Vienna · R327:5 6:2