ATP Lyon250Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying
Moutet vs Paul: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from Elo (no market). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Corentin Moutet26%
Tommy Paul74%
Elo: C. Moutet 26% · T. Paul 74%
from Elo (no market)
Set score
2:0 C. Moutet17%
2:1 C. Moutet13%
2:1 T. Paul22%
2:0 T. Paul48%
First set
Corentin Moutet35%
Tommy Paul65%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%
Total games
Expected total: 23.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 68% | 32% | 67% |
| 20.5 | 60% | 40% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 54% | 46% | 53% |
| 22.5 | 47% | 53% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 41% | 59% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 62% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 35% | 65% | 34% |
Sample: 10,233 matches
Games handicap
Tommy Paul −3.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes40%
tour average 37%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| C. Moutet | Tour | T. Paul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 67% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 75% | 76% | 85% |
| Breaks of serve | 23% | 24% | 24% |
| Aces per service game | 0.28 | 0.52 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.24 | 0.15 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 18% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 5/11 | 15/29 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 55% | |
| Matches in the sample | 38 | 61 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Corentin Moutet
- 21/10/26WFelix Balshaw#186ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:4
- 20/10/26WUgo Humbert#35ATP Lyon · R326:2 6:7 7:6
- 01/09/26LDane Sweeny#112ATP US Open · R1286:7 4:6 0:3
- 05/08/26LRafael Jodar#11ATP Montreal · R646:4 1:6 3:6
- 04/08/26WMarton Fucsovics#141ATP Montreal · R1286:1 6:2
- 29/07/26LJenson Brooksby#99ATP Los Cabos · R324:6 4:6
- 30/06/26LMarcos Giron#88ATP Wimbledon · R1286:4 4:6 5:7 4:6
- 22/06/26LAbdullah Shelbayh#306ATP Mallorca · R325:7 4:6
- 18/06/26LAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#13ATP London · R164:6 3:6
- 15/06/26WGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard#145ATP London · R326:7 6:4 7:6
Tommy Paul
- 21/10/26WBenjamin Bonzi#100ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:7 6:3
- 16/10/26LDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Shanghai · QF3:6 6:1 3:6
- 14/10/26WZizou Bergs#41ATP Shanghai · R167:6 6:4
- 12/10/26WValentin Vacherot#32ATP Shanghai · R326:4 6:2
- 10/10/26WAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#54ATP Shanghai · R646:2 6:2
- 30/09/26LAlejandro Tabilo#31ATP Tokyo · R321:6 2:6
- 06/09/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP US Open · R164:6 3:6 4:6
- 04/09/26WAlexander Bublik#19ATP US Open · R326:4 3:6 6:7 6:1 6:3
- 02/09/26WDino Prizmic#95ATP US Open · R646:2 6:3 5:7 6:4
- 30/08/26WColeman Wong#92ATP US Open · R1286:7 6:1 6:3 6:3
Elo over the last year
Corentin MoutetTommy Paul
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| C. Moutet | T. Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 11–1248% | 25–1366% |
| Clay | 3–730% | 11–473% |
| Grass | 1–420% | 6–275% |
Head to head
C. Moutet 0–1 T. Paul
- 18/02/26Winner: Tommy Paul6:4 3:6 4:6
Road through the tournament
Corentin Moutet
- 20/10/26WUgo Humbert#35ATP Lyon · R326:2 6:7 7:6
- 21/10/26WFelix Balshaw#186ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:4
Tommy Paul
- 21/10/26WBenjamin Bonzi#100ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:7 6:3