ATP Lyon250Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Bonzi vs Paul 1:2: result and our tips

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Benjamin BonziATP #100Elo 1920hard 1888
1:2final4:6 7:6(4) 3:6
Tommy PaulATP #15Elo 2118hard 2070

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Won58%

Where the number comes from: market alone 54% → with the players' profiles 58%

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Bonzi 15 of 20, Paul 13 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Won39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Bonzi 11 of 20, Paul 9 of 20 (tour average 38%); Bonzi: 3 matches in a row over 24.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Benjamin Bonzi28%
Tommy Paul72%

Elo: B. Bonzi 26% · T. Paul 74%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Bonzi16%
2:1 B. Bonzi13%
2:1 T. Paul23%
2:0 T. Paul49%

First set

Benjamin Bonzi33%
Tommy Paul67%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 49%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.573%27%68%
20.565%35%60%
21.558%42%54%
22.551%49%46%
23.544%56%39%
24.539%61%38%
25.537%63%35%

Sample: 4,352 matches

Games handicap

Tommy Paul −3.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes47%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 32 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Benjamin BonziTommy Paul
10Aces18
1Double faults3
67%First serves in66%
73%First-serve points won85%
56%Second-serve points won63%
0/2Break points converted2/5
13/15Service games held16/16
68%Service points won78%
23%Return points won32%
85Total points won100

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. BonziTourT. Paul
Service points won65%62%66%
Return points won36%38%38%
Service games held81%76%84%
Breaks of serve21%24%24%
Aces per service game0.460.51
Double faults per game0.190.15
Sets with a tie-break20%17%
Tie-breaks won18/3115/28
Wins in straight sets61%56%
Matches in the sample6260

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Benjamin Bonzi

Tommy Paul

Elo over the last year

Benjamin BonziTommy Paul

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. BonziT. Paul
Hard court26–1760%24–1365%
Clay4–640%11–473%
Grass6–367%6–275%

Head to head

B. Bonzi 0–2 T. Paul

  • 13/06/23Winner: Tommy Paul3:6 4:6
  • 24/03/22Winner: Tommy Paul4:6 4:6

Road through the tournament

Benjamin Bonzi

Tommy Paul

First match in this tournament.

See also