Paul vs Rublev 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 70%
Over 20.5 games in 5 of their 5 head-to-head matches; Paul: 5 matches in a row over 20.5 games
Where the number comes from: market alone 45% → with the players' profiles 49%
Over 23.5 games in 4 of their 5 head-to-head matches
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: T. Paul 64% · A. Rublev 36%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.7
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 70% | 30% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 63% | 37% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 57% | 44% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 49% | 51% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 45% | 55% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 42% | 58% | 35% |
| 26.5 | 37% | 63% | 30% |
Sample: 5,689 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 2:0
- Total games Over 23.0out · 20 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Tommy Paul | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aces | 3 |
| 1 | Double faults | 1 |
| 62% | First serves in | 64% |
| 72% | First-serve points won | 64% |
| 63% | Second-serve points won | 33% |
| 4/11 | Break points converted | 1/2 |
| 9/10 | Service games held | 6/10 |
| 68% | Service points won | 53% |
| 47% | Return points won | 32% |
| 78 | Total points won | 59 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| T. Paul | Tour | A. Rublev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 84% | 76% | 84% |
| Breaks of serve | 24% | 24% | 22% |
| Aces per service game | 0.51 | 0.59 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.15 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 21% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 15/29 | 16/31 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 60% | |
| Matches in the sample | 63 | 57 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Tommy Paul
- 24/10/26LTaylor Fritz#13ATP Lyon · SF3:6 5:7
- 23/10/26WCorentin Moutet#103ATP Lyon · QF6:4 3:6 6:3
- 21/10/26WBenjamin Bonzi#99ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:7 6:3
- 16/10/26LDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Shanghai · QF3:6 6:1 3:6
- 14/10/26WZizou Bergs#39ATP Shanghai · R167:6 6:4
- 12/10/26WValentin Vacherot#31ATP Shanghai · R326:4 6:2
- 10/10/26WAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#56ATP Shanghai · R646:2 6:2
- 30/09/26LAlejandro Tabilo#30ATP Tokyo · R321:6 2:6
- 06/09/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP US Open · R164:6 3:6 4:6
- 04/09/26WAlexander Bublik#20ATP US Open · R326:4 3:6 6:7 6:1 6:3
Andrey Rublev
- 21/10/26LAdrian Mannarino#73ATP Almaty · R164:6 6:3 3:6
- 09/10/26LRei Sakamoto#125ATP Shanghai · R644:6 4:6
- 04/10/26LAlex de Minaur#10ATP Beijing · QF6:1 2:6 3:6
- 03/10/26WRoman Safiullin#69ATP Beijing · R166:2 3:6 6:4
- 01/10/26WTallon Griekspoor#50ATP Beijing · R326:4 5:7 7:6
- 29/09/26LDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Hangzhou · F5:7 4:6
- 28/09/26WKyrian Jacquet#79ATP Hangzhou · SF7:6 6:1
- 27/09/26WHugo Gaston#110ATP Hangzhou · QF6:7 7:6 6:1
- 25/09/26WRinky Hijikata#85ATP Hangzhou · R166:3 6:3
- 02/09/26LDaniel Merida#42ATP US Open · R647:6 2:6 4:6 4:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| T. Paul | A. Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 26–1465% | 19–1458% |
| Clay | 11–473% | 16–673% |
| Grass | 6–275% | 0–20% |
Head to head
T. Paul 1–4 A. Rublev
- 11/10/23Winner: A. Rublev5:7 5:7
- 12/10/21Winner: T. Paul6:4 3:6 7:5
- 04/05/21Winner: A. Rublev7:6 3:6 4:6
- 23/09/20Winner: A. Rublev1:6 6:3 2:6
- 02/08/18Winner: A. Rublev6:7 4:6