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ATP Lyon250Semifinalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Paul vs Fritz 0:2: result and our tips

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Tommy PaulATP #14Elo 2128hard 2083
0:2final3:6 5:7
Taylor FritzATP #13Elo 2130hard 2089

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: FritzWon59%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fritz: 8 matches in a row winning the first set; Paul lost the first set in 8 of the last 20 matches, Fritz won the first set in 17 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 22.5Lost58%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 49% → with the players' profiles 58%

    Paul: 4 matches in a row over 22.5 games

Long shot
Total Sets: Over 2.5Lost38%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Paul: 3 matches in a row going the distance

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Tommy Paul36%
Taylor Fritz64%

Elo: T. Paul 49% · T. Fritz 51%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Paul22%
2:1 T. Paul16%
2:1 T. Fritz22%
2:0 T. Fritz40%

First set

Tommy Paul41%
Taylor Fritz59%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.571%29%60%
21.563%37%54%
22.558%42%46%
23.549%51%40%
24.542%58%38%
25.541%60%35%
26.537%63%30%

Sample: 5,659 matches

Games handicap

T. Fritz −2.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes52%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 23.5in · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Tommy PaulTaylor Fritz
1Aces15
2Double faults1
56%First serves in70%
74%First-serve points won78%
48%Second-serve points won44%
0/9Break points converted2/3
8/10Service games held11/11
62%Service points won68%
33%Return points won38%
65Total points won79

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. PaulTourT. Fritz
Service points won66%62%70%
Return points won38%38%35%
Service games held84%76%89%
Breaks of serve24%24%16%
Aces per service game0.511.00
Double faults per game0.150.14
Sets with a tie-break17%23%
Tie-breaks won15/2922/34
Wins in straight sets54%62%
Matches in the sample6255

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Tommy Paul

Taylor Fritz

Elo over the last year

Tommy PaulTaylor Fritz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. PaulT. Fritz
Hard court26–1367%26–1367%
Clay11–473%0–20%
Grass6–275%11–379%

Head to head

T. Paul 3–2 T. Fritz

  • 21/02/26Winner: T. Paul6:4 6:3
  • 19/02/24Winner: T. Fritz2:6 3:6
  • 04/03/23Winner: T. Paul6:3 6:7 7:6
  • 28/03/22Winner: T. Fritz6:7 4:6
  • 10/11/21Winner: T. Paul6:4 6:4

Road through the tournament

Tommy Paul

Taylor Fritz

See also