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ATP ParisMasters 1000Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Ruud vs Borges: prediction and tips

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Casper RuudATP #23Elo 2115hard 2048
-:-
Nuno BorgesATP #49Elo 2012hard 1975

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: Ruud62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Ruud won the first set in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches; Ruud: 4 matches in a row winning the first set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 26.565%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 68% → with the players' profiles 65%

    Under 26.5 games in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

  • Match Winner: Ruud67%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Ruud: 3 wins in a row

Long shot
Total Games: Under 21.540%

Where the number comes from: market alone 44% → with the players' profiles 40%

Borges: 4 matches in a row under 21.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Casper Ruud67%
Nuno Borges33%

Elo: C. Ruud 60% · N. Borges 40%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Ruud43%
2:1 C. Ruud23%
2:1 N. Borges14%
2:0 N. Borges20%

First set

Casper Ruud62%
Nuno Borges38%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.576%24%68%
20.568%32%60%
21.560%40%54%
22.554%46%46%
23.546%54%40%
24.540%60%38%
25.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,374 matches

Games handicap

C. Ruud −3.545%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes49%

tour average 39%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. RuudTourN. Borges
Service points won66%62%66%
Return points won37%38%36%
Service games held85%76%84%
Breaks of serve22%24%20%
Aces per service game0.530.55
Double faults per game0.200.17
Sets with a tie-break16%20%
Tie-breaks won9/2011/30
Wins in straight sets68%71%
Matches in the sample4962

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Casper Ruud

Nuno Borges

Elo over the last year

Casper RuudNuno Borges

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. RuudN. Borges
Hard court14–1156%20–1557%
Clay17–674%9–950%
Grass0–10%5–456%

Head to head

C. Ruud 2–2 N. Borges

  • 28/10/26Winner: N. Borges6:1 3:6 4:6
  • 31/07/25Winner: C. Ruud7:5 6:4
  • 28/05/25Winner: N. Borges6:2 4:6 1:6 0:6
  • 22/02/24Winner: C. Ruud6:3 6:2

Road through the tournament

Casper Ruud

Nuno Borges

Upcoming matches

See also