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ATP ParisMasters 1000Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Borges vs Mannarino 2:1: result and our tips

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Nuno BorgesATP #49Elo 1987hard 1946
2:1final4:6 6:1 7:5
Adrian MannarinoATP #59Elo 1895hard 1873

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: BorgesLost58%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Borges won the first set in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Match Winner: BorgesWon62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 62%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Borges won 3 of 3 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Set Betting: Borges 2-0Lost39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Borges won 2-0 in 9 of the last 20 matches, Mannarino lost 0-2 in 8 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%); Borges won 2-0 in 2 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Nuno Borges61%
Adrian Mannarino40%

Elo: N. Borges 60% · A. Mannarino 40%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 N. Borges38%
2:1 N. Borges21%
2:1 A. Mannarino18%
2:0 A. Mannarino23%

First set

Nuno Borges57%
Adrian Mannarino43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 56%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.569%31%60%
21.562%38%54%
22.556%44%46%
23.548%52%40%
24.543%57%38%
25.541%59%35%
26.537%63%30%

Sample: 5,995 matches

Games handicap

N. Borges −2.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes48%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 29 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Nuno BorgesAdrian Mannarino
9Aces4
0Double faults3
64%First serves in58%
70%First-serve points won68%
50%Second-serve points won41%
5/10Break points converted3/5
12/15Service games held9/14
63%Service points won56%
44%Return points won37%
97Total points won84

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

N. BorgesTourA. Mannarino
Service points won66%62%63%
Return points won35%38%35%
Service games held84%76%75%
Breaks of serve19%24%19%
Aces per service game0.540.40
Double faults per game0.170.17
Sets with a tie-break21%17%
Tie-breaks won12/3114/26
Wins in straight sets69%48%
Matches in the sample6062

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Nuno Borges

Adrian Mannarino

Elo over the last year

Nuno BorgesAdrian Mannarino

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

N. BorgesA. Mannarino
Hard court18–1555%21–2249%
Clay9–950%0–80%
Grass5–456%6–555%

Head to head

N. Borges 3–0 A. Mannarino

  • 21/06/26Winner: N. Borges6:2 6:2
  • 13/04/26Winner: N. Borges6:3 6:4
  • 14/08/24Winner: N. Borges6:4 3:6 6:1

See also