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ATP Basel500Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Struff vs Borges 2:0: result and our tips

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Jan-Lennard StruffATP #39Elo 1958hard 1910
2:0final6:2 6:3
Nuno BorgesATP #49Elo 2001hard 1963

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jan-Lennard Struff54%
Nuno Borges46%

Elo: J.-L. Struff 43% · N. Borges 58%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J.-L. Struff33%
2:1 J.-L. Struff20%
2:1 N. Borges20%
2:0 N. Borges27%

First set

Jan-Lennard Struff53%
Nuno Borges47%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 24.5 · 55%market (no margin): 49%

The 24.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 25.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.573%27%60%
21.565%35%54%
22.559%41%46%
23.551%49%40%
24.545%55%38%
25.543%57%35%
26.539%61%30%

Sample: 5,508 matches

Games handicap

J.-L. Struff −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes52%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 24.5in · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Jan-Lennard StruffNuno Borges
9Aces6
3Double faults0
65%First serves in71%
76%First-serve points won59%
50%Second-serve points won25%
5/8Break points converted2/4
7/9Service games held3/8
67%Service points won49%
51%Return points won33%
55Total points won37

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J.-L. StruffTourN. Borges
Service points won66%62%66%
Return points won35%38%35%
Service games held83%76%85%
Breaks of serve18%24%19%
Aces per service game0.770.54
Double faults per game0.240.17
Sets with a tie-break23%21%
Tie-breaks won22/3612/31
Wins in straight sets59%69%
Matches in the sample5859

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jan-Lennard Struff

Nuno Borges

Elo over the last year

Jan-Lennard StruffNuno Borges

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J.-L. StruffN. Borges
Hard court22–1658%18–1456%
Clay4–736%9–950%
Grass6–367%5–456%

Head to head

J.-L. Struff 0–2 N. Borges

  • 23/06/26Winner: N. Borges4:6 5:7
  • 18/03/23Winner: N. Borges4:6 2:6

Road through the tournament

Jan-Lennard Struff

Nuno Borges