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ATP Basel500Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Djokovic vs Struff 1:2: result and our tips

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Novak DjokovicATP #11Elo 2270hard 2251
1:2final7:6(4) 5:7 6:7(5)
Jan-Lennard StruffATP #39Elo 1941hard 1890

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: DjokovicWon72%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Djokovic won the first set in 6 of their 6 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Match Winner: DjokovicLost78%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 78%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Djokovic won 6 of 6 head-to-head matches

  • Total Games: Over 21.5Won56%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 51% → with the players' profiles 56%

    Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Djokovic 11 of 14, Struff 12 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Long shot
Total Sets: Over 2.5Won33%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

A third set in recent matches: Djokovic 9 of 14, Struff 9 of 20 (tour average 35%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Novak Djokovic79%
Jan-Lennard Struff22%

Elo: N. Djokovic 89% · J.-L. Struff 11%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 N. Djokovic56%
2:1 N. Djokovic21%
2:1 J.-L. Struff11%
2:0 J.-L. Struff12%

First set

Novak Djokovic72%
Jan-Lennard Struff28%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 50%market (no margin): 48%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.573%27%68%
20.564%36%59%
21.556%44%54%
22.550%50%46%
23.542%58%39%
24.537%63%38%
25.535%65%35%

Sample: 3,249 matches

Games handicap

N. Djokovic −4.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes48%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 38 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Novak DjokovicJan-Lennard Struff
21Aces27
3Double faults2
68%First serves in65%
81%First-serve points won83%
71%Second-serve points won58%
0/6Break points converted1/3
17/18Service games held18/18
77%Service points won74%
26%Return points won23%
113Total points won114

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

N. DjokovicTourJ.-L. Struff
Service points won68%62%66%
Return points won36%38%35%
Service games held86%76%82%
Breaks of serve20%24%18%
Aces per service game0.520.75
Double faults per game0.180.24
Sets with a tie-break14%22%
Tie-breaks won10/1421/34
Wins in straight sets35%61%
Matches in the sample3157

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Novak Djokovic

Jan-Lennard Struff

Elo over the last year

Novak DjokovicJan-Lennard Struff

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

N. DjokovicJ.-L. Struff
Hard court16–576%21–1657%
Clay2–250%4–736%
Grass5–183%6–367%

Head to head

N. Djokovic 6–0 J.-L. Struff

  • 31/08/25Winner: N. Djokovic6:3 6:3 6:2
  • 04/09/20Winner: N. Djokovic6:3 6:3 6:1
  • 26/08/20Winner: N. Djokovic6:3 6:1
  • 20/01/20Winner: N. Djokovic7:6 6:2 2:6 6:1
  • 03/06/19Winner: N. Djokovic6:3 6:2 6:2
  • 02/01/17Winner: N. Djokovic7:6 6:3

Road through the tournament

Novak Djokovic

Jan-Lennard Struff

See also