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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Struff vs Ruud: prediction and tips

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Jan-Lennard StruffATP #39Elo 1983hard 1941
-:-
Casper RuudATP #23Elo 2108hard 2039

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 24.559%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 24.5 games in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.562%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Long shot
1st Set Winner: Struff40%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Struff won the first set in 3 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Jan-Lennard Struff35%
Casper Ruud65%

Elo: J.-L. Struff 36% · C. Ruud 64%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J.-L. Struff21%
2:1 J.-L. Struff16%
2:1 C. Ruud22%
2:0 C. Ruud41%

First set

Jan-Lennard Struff40%
Casper Ruud60%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 52%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.569%31%60%
21.562%39%54%
22.556%44%46%
23.547%53%40%
24.541%59%38%
25.540%61%35%
26.536%64%30%

Sample: 5,717 matches

Games handicap

C. Ruud −2.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes50%

tour average 39%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J.-L. StruffTourC. Ruud
Service points won66%62%66%
Return points won35%38%37%
Service games held83%76%85%
Breaks of serve18%24%22%
Aces per service game0.780.52
Double faults per game0.240.20
Sets with a tie-break23%17%
Tie-breaks won23/379/20
Wins in straight sets61%67%
Matches in the sample5948

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jan-Lennard Struff

Casper Ruud

Elo over the last year

Jan-Lennard StruffCasper Ruud

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J.-L. StruffC. Ruud
Hard court23–1659%13–1154%
Clay4–736%17–674%
Grass6–367%0–10%

Head to head

J.-L. Struff 3–1 C. Ruud

  • 29/09/23Winner: C. Ruud6:7 3:6
  • 13/04/23Winner: J.-L. Struff6:1 7:6
  • 27/08/19Winner: J.-L. Struff6:4 6:4 6:2
  • 18/04/17Winner: J.-L. Struff6:4 6:4

Road through the tournament

Jan-Lennard Struff

Casper Ruud

Upcoming matches

See also