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ATP Basel500Semifinalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Lehečka vs Struff 2:1: result and our tips

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Jiří LehečkaATP #15Elo 2108hard 2076
2:1final3:6 7:5 6:4
Jan-Lennard StruffATP #39Elo 1969hard 1923

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: LeheckaLost62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Lehecka: 7 matches in a row winning the first set; Lehecka won the first set in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Match Winner: LeheckaWon67%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Lehecka won 3 of 3 head-to-head matches; Lehecka won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Won41%

Where the number comes from: market alone 39% → with the players' profiles 41%

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Lehecka 11 of 20, Struff 9 of 20 (tour average 38%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jiří Lehečka67%
Jan-Lennard Struff33%

Elo: J. Lehečka 71% · J.-L. Struff 29%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Lehečka43%
2:1 J. Lehečka23%
2:1 J.-L. Struff15%
2:0 J.-L. Struff20%

First set

Jiří Lehečka62%
Jan-Lennard Struff38%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 48%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.570%30%60%
21.562%38%54%
22.556%44%46%
23.548%53%40%
24.541%59%38%
25.539%61%35%
26.536%64%30%

Sample: 5,384 matches

Games handicap

J. Lehečka −2.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes52%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 23.0in · 31 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Jiří LehečkaJan-Lennard Struff
22Aces11
2Double faults2
70%First serves in61%
78%First-serve points won79%
52%Second-serve points won42%
2/4Break points converted2/7
14/16Service games held13/15
70%Service points won65%
36%Return points won30%
101Total points won89

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. LehečkaTourJ.-L. Struff
Service points won68%62%66%
Return points won36%38%35%
Service games held88%76%83%
Breaks of serve19%24%18%
Aces per service game0.660.77
Double faults per game0.120.24
Sets with a tie-break21%23%
Tie-breaks won14/3022/36
Wins in straight sets64%61%
Matches in the sample5659

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jiří Lehečka

Jan-Lennard Struff

Elo over the last year

Jiří LehečkaJan-Lennard Struff

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. LehečkaJ.-L. Struff
Hard court24–1365%23–1659%
Clay6–460%4–736%
Grass6–367%6–367%

Head to head

J. Lehečka 3–0 J.-L. Struff

  • 08/05/26Winner: J. Lehečka7:6 6:3
  • 11/06/25Winner: J. Lehečka6:4 7:5
  • 29/05/23Winner: J. Lehečka7:5 1:6 6:3 3:6 6:1

Road through the tournament

Jiří Lehečka

Jan-Lennard Struff

See also