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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Ruud vs Jodar 2:0: result and our tips

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Casper RuudATP #23Elo 2095hard 2024
2:0final6:3 6:4
Rafael JodarATP #10Elo 2159hard 2105

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: JodarLost64%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 64%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Jodar won 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Casper Ruud36%
Rafael Jodar64%

Elo: C. Ruud 38% · R. Jodar 62%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Ruud22%
2:1 C. Ruud17%
2:1 R. Jodar22%
2:0 R. Jodar40%

First set

Casper Ruud41%
Rafael Jodar59%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.574%26%68%
20.566%34%60%
21.560%41%54%
22.552%48%46%
23.545%55%40%
24.541%59%39%
25.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,813 matches

Games handicap

R. Jodar −2.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes45%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.5out · 19 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Casper RuudRafael Jodar
7Aces3
1Double faults1
79%First serves in68%
68%First-serve points won67%
82%Second-serve points won39%
3/4Break points converted1/3
9/10Service games held6/9
71%Service points won58%
42%Return points won29%
61Total points won48

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. RuudTourR. Jodar
Service points won66%62%64%
Return points won37%38%41%
Service games held85%76%81%
Breaks of serve22%24%30%
Aces per service game0.520.39
Double faults per game0.200.18
Sets with a tie-break17%13%
Tie-breaks won9/2011/26
Wins in straight sets66%60%
Matches in the sample4778

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Casper Ruud

Rafael Jodar

Elo over the last year

Casper RuudRafael Jodar

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. RuudR. Jodar
Hard court12–1152%37–1571%
Clay17–674%19–483%
Grass0–10%2–167%

Head to head

C. Ruud 0–1 R. Jodar

  • 16/10/26Winner: R. Jodar6:4 4:6 3:6

Road through the tournament

Casper Ruud

Rafael Jodar

Upcoming matches

See also