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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets

Tabilo vs Jodar 0:2: result and our tips

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Alejandro TabiloATP #30Elo 1949hard 1912
0:2final2:6 3:6
Rafael JodarATP #10Elo 2151hard 2096

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alejandro Tabilo19%
Rafael Jodar81%

Elo: A. Tabilo 26% · R. Jodar 74%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Tabilo11%
2:1 A. Tabilo10%
2:1 R. Jodar21%
2:0 R. Jodar59%

First set

Alejandro Tabilo26%
Rafael Jodar74%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes31%
no69%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%76%
19.566%34%68%
20.557%43%59%
21.550%50%54%
22.543%57%46%
23.537%63%39%
24.534%66%38%

Sample: 2,893 matches

Games handicap

R. Jodar −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 21.5out · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Alejandro TabiloRafael Jodar
3Aces10
2Double faults0
77%First serves in68%
48%First-serve points won71%
23%Second-serve points won38%
2/4Break points converted5/12
3/8Service games held7/9
42%Service points won61%
39%Return points won58%
50Total points won73

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. TabiloTourR. Jodar
Service points won66%62%64%
Return points won36%38%40%
Service games held82%76%81%
Breaks of serve21%24%30%
Aces per service game0.480.38
Double faults per game0.160.18
Sets with a tie-break16%13%
Tie-breaks won12/2812/27
Wins in straight sets50%60%
Matches in the sample6778

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alejandro Tabilo

Rafael Jodar

Elo over the last year

Alejandro TabiloRafael Jodar

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. TabiloR. Jodar
Hard court14–1450%37–1571%
Clay24–1267%19–483%
Grass0–30%2–167%

Head to head

A. Tabilo 1–3 R. Jodar

  • 27/10/26Winner: R. Jodar4:6 2:6
  • 17/08/26Winner: R. Jodar2:6 1:6
  • 02/08/26Winner: R. Jodar7:6 4:6 4:6
  • 06/03/26Winner: A. Tabilo6:1 6:2

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